Saradha Redux: Why Rose Valley is a Ponzi scheme

KKRVivek Kaul
The Securities and Exchange Board of India(Sebi) in a significant order yesterday directed Rose Valley Hotels and Entertainments Limited (RVHEL) and its directors to stop raising deposits through any of its existing investment schemes. The Sebi also directed RVHEL and its directors not to launch any new schemes, not to dispose of any of the properties or alienate any of the assets of the schemes and not to divert any funds raised from public at large which are kept in bank account(s) and/or in the custody of the company.
RVHEL had launched the Rose Valley Holiday Membership Plan (HMP) sometime in 2010. Under this plan investors could book a holiday package through the payment of monthly instalments. On completion of tenure investors could avail the facilities i.e. room accommodation and other services at one of the RVHEL’s hotels. He or she also had the option to opt for a maturity payment along with interest.
The
Rose Valley group started sometime in the mid 1990s and has close to 31 registered companies. It claims to have presence in areas from residential townships to film to media and entertainment.
But a careful study of its operations suggests that it is nothing more than a Ponzi scheme.
A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investment scheme in which the illusion of high returns is created by taking money being brought in by new investors and passing it on to old investors whose investments are falling due and need to be redeemed.
While every Ponzi scheme is different from another in its details, there are certain key characteristics that almost all Ponzi schemes tend to have. And Rose Valley is no exception to this.
The instrument in which the scheme will invest appears to be a genuine investment opportunity but at the same time it is obscure enough, to prevent any scrutiny by the investors: The website of Rose Valley India claims to be in many businesses like residential townships, commercial complexes, shopping malls, hotels & resorts, amusement parks, garments, IT, Media & Entertainment, Healthcare, Education, Social Welfare, Housing finance, Travels, Films & Fashions.
This told the prospective investors that the company was in various businesses and these businesses were supposedly making money. But there are several questions that crop up here. How did one promoter have the expertise to manage such a diverse line of businesses? We live in a day and age where its not possible for a single entrepreneur to run multiple unconnected businesses profitably.
Vijay Mallya thought running an airline, a cricket team and an FI team was just the same as selling alcohol. DLF thought running hotels, generating wind power, selling insurance and mutual funds would be a cake walk after they had created India’s biggest real estate company. Deccan Chronicle saw great synergy in selling newspapers and running a cricket team and a chain of bookshops. Hotel Leela thought running a business park would be similar to running a hotel. Kishore Biyani thought that once he got people inside his Big Bazaars and Pantaloon shops, he could sell them anything from mobile phone connections to life and general insurance. Bharti Telecom thought that mutual funds, insurance and retail were similar to running a successful telecom business. But in sometime all of them realised that they had a problem.
Of course there are groups like Birlas, Tatas and the Ambanis which are present in multiple businesses. But they are more of an exception that proves the rule.
Rose Valley wasn’t making any money from its multiple businesses either.
As a recent report in The Financial Express points out “The Serious Fraud Investigation Office (SFIO) probing Rose Valley Hotels & Entertainment is looking into a web of intra-group transactions including Rs 207-crore loans to promoter Gautam Kundu in 2011-12, sources said. The company reported a loss of Rs 468 crore on revenues of Rs 24 crore in the same year.” On a slightly different note, Kundu travels in a Rolls-Royce Phantom.
Let me repeat this again. The company made a loss of Rs 468 crore on revenues of Rs 24 crore. What this clearly means is that the company wasn’t running any business at all. It was just creating an illusion of having several businesses, so that investors kept coming to it. Meanwhile, it was simply rotating money, using the money being brought in by the newer investors to pay off the older investors. This conclusion can be drawn from the fact that its real businesses weren’t making any money. So the money to pay off the older investors whose investments were up for redemption could only have come from newer investors.
There is other evidence that points to the fact that the company did not have much of a business model.
As a January 2011 piece published on www.moneylife.in points out “Under its ‘Ashirvad’ scheme, Rose Valley mobilised Rs1,207 crore by selling 508,792 plots, but handed over only 9,045 plots. While the company claims to have a land bank in several upcoming and industrial areas of West Bengal,  the question is, how did they get access to all those vast stretches of land that are traditionally used for agriculture?”
The rate of return promised is high and is fixed at the time the investor enters the scheme: The Sebi order against Rose Valley Hotels and Entertainments clearly points out that returns on various investment schemes varied from anywhere between 11.2% to 17.65%. At its upper the return is significantly higher than the rate of return from other fixed income investments like bank fixed deposits and post office deposits.
The certificate issued for investing in the Holiday Membership Plan said that the money is being
invested for booking a room in one of the hotels of Rose Valley, but at the time of maturity the money would be returned against cancellation. This meant that the investors into the Holiday Membership plan could cancel it on maturity and be paid a bulk amount which would include the money invested into the scheme and the interest that had accumulated on it. As the Sebi order points out “However, such investor may also cancel the HMP(Holiday Membership Plan) booking upon maturity or completion of tenure for monthly installments, in lieu of maturity payment for non-utilization of the facilities i.e. the equivalent accumulated credit value under the HMP inclusive of annualized interest.”
An investor who had paid Rs 500 per month for 60 months would get Rs 48,000 if he cancelled at maturity, meaning a return of 17.65% per year. The Sebi order quotes an interim order passed by a sub divisional magistrate in West Tripura. As the Sebi order points out “As per the Interim Order passed by the SDM, West Tripura, RVHEL is alleged to have taken
“recourse to unilateral and spontaneous cancellation of bookings of hotels in a routine manner so as to make returns.””
What this tells us is that Rose Valley wasn’t really interested in running the holiday membership plan. It couldn’t possibly have built all the hotel rooms that it had promised to build under the Holiday Membership Plan and hence encouraged investors to opt for a bulk payment on maturity.
Brand building is an inherent part of a Ponzi Scheme: Rose Valley spent a lot of money in building its brand. The company was one of the main sponsors for the IPL team Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR). KKR players wore jerseys with the Rose Valley logo. Rose Valley had a two year sponsorship deal with KKR. For this it paid Rs 5.5 crore during the first year and Rs 6.05 crore during the second year. The deal has now ended. Gautam Kundu, chairman, Rose Valley Group, recently told The Times of India “Our contract was for two years. Now it’s for me to decide whether I shall renew it or not. The decision to invest in KKR will also be mine, entirely.”
This deal helped Rose Valley build more credibility among prospective investors in West Bengal where it is primarily based out of.
As Ashok Mitra, a retired clerk with the state government told New York Times India InkI saw Shah Rukh Khan(one of the owners of KKR) and invested 75,000 rupees…I did not worry because he was vouching for the company.”A report that appeared in The Indian Express in May 2013 quoted a source as saying “The company joined hands with KKR because they wanted to build their image and extend their reach. With 254 branches across the country, the association with the KKR provided them the right platform.”
Rose Valley has significant presence in the media. It owns newspapers as well as television channels. It also used other newspapers to build its brand. As the Moneylife article cited earlier points out “Rose Valley has been a big advertiser with Ananda Bazar Patrika (ABP) group. ABP has gone out of its way to promote them and celebrate their “entrepreneurship”.”
The most important part of a Ponzi Scheme is assuring the investor that their investment is safe: This is the most tricky part about running a Ponzi scheme. Unless the investor feels assured that his money will be safe he won’t invest it in the scheme. Rose Valley was a corporate agent of the Life Insurance Corporation(LIC) of India between 2002 and 2011. It is said that Rose Valley used this route to raise money for its own investment schemes. Given this, the confidence that people have in LIC which is backed by the government of India would have rubbed onto Rose Valley as well.
Interestingly, the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority(Irda),
the insurance regulator, cancelled Rose Valley’s license in early 2012.
To conclude, it is important to know that on March 14, 2013, Sachin Pilot, the Union Minister of State for Corporate Affairs,
presented a long list of companies across the country against which complaints had been received for running Ponzi schemes. This list had 14 companies belonging to the Rose Valley group.
The article originally appeared on www.firstpost.com on July 11, 2013
(Vivek Kaul is a writer. He tweets @kaul_vivek)

Yesterday, once more! Western central banks are fuelling real estate bubbles again

bubble


Vivek Kaul
 

A major reason behind the financial crisis that started in late 2008 was the fact that the Western countries had built many more homes than were required to house their populations. Once the home prices started crashing what followed was an economic catastrophe from which the world is still trying to come out.
Ironically the solution that central banks came up with for mitigating the negative effects of the financial crisis was to get home prices up and running again. This was done by printing money and pumping it into the financial system and ensure that the interest rates remain at very low levels. The hope was that at low interest rates people will borrow money and buy homes. 
Initially people stayed away but gradually they seem to be getting back to borrowing and home prices in Western countries are up and running again. 
As Albert Edwards of Societe Generale writes in a report titled 
If UK Chancellor George Osborne is a moron, Fitch’s Charlene Chu is a heroine “Young people today haven’t got a chance of buying a house at a reasonable price, even with rock bottom interest rates. The Nationwide Building Society data shows that the average first time buyer in London is paying over 50% of their take home pay in mortgage payments – and that is when interest rates are close to zero!…The OECD has recently identified UK house prices as between 20-30% too high (depending on whether you compare prices with rents or incomes – link). To be sure the UK is nowhere near the most expensive, with some of the usual suspects such as Canada, Australia and New Zealand even worse.”
Home prices in the United States have also been rising steadily since the beginning of 2012. The S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index has risen by 13.4% since the beginning of 2012. Even with this price rise, home prices in the United States are still 25% lower than the peak they achieved in April 2006. 
Real estate prices in Western countries should not be rising at such high rates. They have huge amounts of land to build all the homes that they need. Hence, real estate prices in a country like America, which is not really short of land have rarely risen at a very fast pace. Housing prices in America had remained flat for a large part of the 20th century. Prices rose on an average at the rate of 0.4% per year (adjusted for inflation) for the period between 1890 and 2004. In fact in many parts of the country the pries had actually gone down.
For smaller countries like the United Kingdom land may be an issue, but the population density is not very high. The United Kingdom has around 255 people living per square kilometre. In comparison, Japan has 337 people living per square kilometre and India has 367. So there is enough land going around given the population. 
But more than these reasons the biggest reason why home prices should not be rising at the rates that they are is simply because the home ownership rates in these countries are very high. In June 2004, at the peak of the real estate boom, 69.2% of US households owned their own homes, up from 64% in 1995. Home ownership in the United Kingdom peaked in 2001 at 69%. Since then home ownership rates have fallen. In the United States, it has fallen to around 65%. In the United Kingdom it is at 64%. 
Even with the falling home ownership rates a major part of the population in these countries owns the homes that they stay in. The falling home ownership rate in the aftermath of the financial crisis only means one thing and that is that there were many more homes built than required. And a lot of homes were bought not to live in, but for speculation. 
The governments and central banks are now trying to get the speculation going again. In the United States this is important because home equity loans were responsible for a lot of consumption. Home equity is the difference between the market price of a house and the home loan outstanding on it. Banks give a loan on this home equity. 
Charles R Morris writing in 
The Trillion Dollar Meltdown: Easy Money, High Rollers, And the Great Credit Crash explains this phenomenon: “Consumer spending jumped from a 1990s average of about 67% of GDP to 72% of GDP in early 2007. As Martin Feldstein, a former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, has pointed out, that increase was financed primarily by the withdrawal of $9 trillion in home equity.”
Feldstein’s study was carried out for the period between 1997 and 2006. A study carried out by Alan Greenspan estimated that in the 2000s, home equity withdrawals financed 3% of all personal consumption. But this was a low estimate. Home equity supplied more than 6% of the disposable personal income of Americans between 2000-2007, another study pointed out. In fact, by the first quarter of 2006, home equity extraction made up for nearly 10% of disposable personal income of Americans. 
And all this consumption in turn created economic growth. If home prices keep going up, more home equity will be created and people can borrow against that. Also as home prices go up, people feel wealthier and tend to spend more, which helps economic growth. 
Governments are trying to encourage banks to give out loans so that people can buy homes. George Osborne, the British chancellor of the exchequer (the Indian equivalent of the finance minister) has come up with a “help to buy” scheme. In this the government will guarantee up to 20% of the home loan to encourage lending to borrowers with small savings. As Edwards writes “This means that if a borrower defaults on a loan, the taxpayer will be liable for a proportion of the losses.”
Criticism for this scheme has come in from various fronts. Andrew Bridgen, senior economist for Fathom Consulting, a forecasting firm run by former Bank of England economists, said: “Help to Buy is a reckless scheme that uses public money to incentivise the banks to lend precisely to those individuals who should not be offered credit. Had we been asked to design a policy that would guarantee maximum damage to the UK’s long-term growth prospects and its fragile credit rating, this would be it.” (As Edwards quotes in his report)
This is precisely what happened in the United States as well in the run up to the financial crisis, wher
e the government nudged banks and other financial institutions to lend to people who were in no position to repay the loan.
Central banks can afford to keep interest rates low primarily because of the policy of inflation targeting that they follow. There mandate is to maintain the rate of inflation at a certain rate and do everything required for that. Increasing real estate prices do not get captured in the rate of consumer price inflation, which central banks tend to use for inflation targeting. 
In fact inflation targeting was one of the reasons behind the global real estate bubble of the 2000s. As Stephen D King writes in 
When Money Runs Out – The End of Western Affluence “Take, for example, inflation targeting in the UK. In the early years of the new millennium, inflation had a tendency to drop too low, thanks to the deflationary effects on manufactured goods prices of low-cost producers in China and elsewhere in the emerging world. To keep inflation close to target, the Bank of England loosened monetary policy with the intention of delivering higher ‘domestically generated’ inflation…The inflation target was hit only by allowing domestic imbalances to arise: too much consumption, too much consumer indebtedness, too much leverage within the financial system and too little policy-making wisdom.” 
The same thing seems to be happening right now. With inflation rates too low the central banks have been maintaining low interest rates, so that people consume more and that in turn hopefully creates some inflation. But that in turn means doing the same things that led to the financial crisis. 
Governments and central banks pushing up real estate prices does help in the short term and translates into some sort of economic growth. But it does have serious long term repercussions as we have seen over the last few years. As Edwards writes “What makes me genuinely 
really angry is that burdening our children with more debt (on top of their student loans) to buy ridiculously expensive houses is seen as a solution to the problem of excessively expensive housing…First time buyers need cheaper homes not greater availably of debt to inflate house prices even further. This is madness.”
To conclude, let me quote economist Robert J Shiller from 
The Subprime Solution: How Today’s Global Financial Crisis Happened, and What to Do about It “The idea that public policy should be aimed at…preventing a collapse in home prices from ever happening, is an error of the first magnitude. In the short run a sudden drop in home prices may indeed disrupt the economy, producing undesirable systemic effects. But, in the long run, the home-price drops are clearly a good thing.” 

The article originally appeared on www.firstpost.com on July 10, 2013
(Vivek Kaul is a writer. He tweets @kaul_vivek) 

 

It's just another manic Monday for the Indian rupee

 rupeeVivek Kaul  
The Indian rupee crashed to an all time low level, crossing 61 to a dollar, this morning. As I write this one dollar is worth around Rs 61.2. On Friday when the foreign exchange market closed one dollar was worth Rs 60.24.
The rupee has crashed in response to return on the 10 year American treasury bond spiking to 2.73% on Friday i.e. July 5, 2013. This was an increase of 21 basis points (one basis point is equal to one hundredth of a percentage) in comparison to the return on Wednesday i.e. July 3, 2013. The bond market was closed on July 4, 2013, the American independence day.
A 10 year treasury bond is a bond issued by the American government to finance its fiscal deficit i.e. the difference between what it earns and what it spends. These bonds can be bought and sold in the open market. This buying and selling impacts the price of these bonds and hence their overall return.
The return on the 10 year American treasury bond spiked in response to better than expected jobs data. American businesses added 1,95,000 jobs in June, 2013, which was better than what the market expected. This faster than expected recovery in the job market is being taken as a signal that the American economy is finally getting back on track.
Since the start of the financial crisis in late 2008, the Federal Reserve of United States, the American central bank, has been printing dollars and pumping them into the financial system. This is to ensure that there are enough dollars going around in the financial system, so that interest rates continue to stay low. At low interest rates people are likely to borrow and spend more. Consumer spending makes up for around 71-72% of the American gross domestic product. Hence, an increase in consumer spending is very important for the American economy to keep growing.
The Federal Reserve prints dollars and pumps them into the financial system by buying bonds worth $85 billion every month. This includes government bonds and mortgage backed securities. On June 19,2013, Ben Bernanke, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve of United States, had said that if the American economy kept improving, the Federal Reserve would go slow on money printing in the time to come. He had said that it was possible that the Fed could stop money printing to buy bonds by the middle of next year.
The jobs data has come out better than expected. This is a signal to the bond market that the Federal Reserve will start going slow on money printing sooner rather than later. Several estimates now suggest that the Federal Reserve will start going slow on money printing as soon as September this year.
As and when the Federal Reserve goes slow on money printing the interest rates are likely to go up, as the financial system will have lesser amount of dollars going around. This is likely to push interest rates up. Bond prices are inversely related to interest rates. So as interest rates will go up, bond prices will fall, leading to losses for investors.
But markets don’t wait for things to happen. They start discounting likely happenings in advance.
Given this, the bond market investors are selling out on American government bonds to limit their losses. This has led to bond prices falling. Even when bond prices fall, the interest paid on these bonds continues to remain the same. This means a higher return for the investors who buy the bonds that are being sold.
So this has pushed the return on the 10 year American treasury bond to 2.73%. On May 1, 2013, the return on the 10 year American treasury bond was 1.66%.
An increase in return on government bonds pushes up interest rates on all other loans. This is because lending to the government is deemed to the safest, and hence the return on other loans has to be greater than that, to compensate for the higher risk involved.
As mentioned above, in the aftermath of the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve started to print money, in order to get the American economy up and running again. The trouble was that the average American was just coming out of a huge borrowing binge and was not ready to borrow again, so soon.
But the financial system was slush with money available at very low interest rates. This led to large institutional investors indulging in what came to be known as the dollar carry trade. Money was borrowed in dollars at low interest rates and invested in financial assets all over the world. The difference in return between what the investor makes and the interest he pays on his dollar borrowing, is referred to as the carry.
With interest rates in the United States going up, as returns on government bonds up, the carry made on the dollar carry trade has been on its way down. The arbitrage that investors were indulging in by borrowing in dollars and investing those dollars all across the world with a prospect of making higher returns is no longer as viable as it used to be.
A lot of this money came into the Indian stock market as well as the bond market. In case of the bond market the amount of return that can made is limited. Hence, carry trade investors who had invested in Indian bonds have been selling out. Between May end and now, foreign investors have sold out around $6 billion worth of Indian bonds.
When they sell out on these bonds, the investors are paid in rupees. In order to repatriate these rupees abroad they need to convert them into dollars. Hence they sell rupees to buy dollars. When they sell rupees there is a surfeit of rupees in the market and not enough dollars going around. In this scenario, the rupee tends to fall in value against the dollar.
And that’s what has happened in the morning today when the rupee crossed 61 to a dollar. As the rupee loses value against the dollar, foreign investors face a higher amount of currency risk, leading to more of them selling out. This puts further pressure on the rupee. ( you can read more about it here).
The pressure on the rupee will continue in the days to come. If American bond yields keep going up, more foreign investors will sell out of India and this will lead to the rupee continuing to lose value against the dollar. Over and above that there are several home grown issues that will ensure that the rupee will keep depreciating against the dollar. (You can read more about it here) This is not the last manic Monday we have seen as far as the rupee is concerned.

 PS: In the time that it took me to write this piece, the rupee recovered against the dollar. One dollar is now worth around Rs 60.99. Looks like the RBI has intervened to sell dollars and buy rupees.
The article originally appeared on www.firstpost.com on July 8,2013.
 (Vivek Kaul is a writer. He tweets @kaul_vivek) 

Extending Your Brand May Dilute its Identity

laura visual hammer
Vivek Kaul
 
Vijay Mallya, the liquor king, who wanted to run an airline, recently told the staff at Kingfisher Airlines that he had no money to clear their salary dues. Mallya, like many businessmen before him, also became a victim of the line extension trap. “The line-extension trap is using the same brand name on two different categories of products. Kingfisher beer and Kingfisher Airlines. We have studied hundreds of categories and thousands of companies and we find that line extension generally doesn’t work, although there are some exceptions,” says marketing guru Laura Ries, who has most recently authored Visual Hammer.
Along with her father, the legendary marketing guru Al Ries, she has also authored, several other bestsellers like The Origin of BrandsThe Fall of Advertising & the Rise of PR and the War in the Boardroom.
But does such a rigid line against line extensions make sense in this day and age, when it is very expensive to build a brand. “We have never said that a company should not line extend a brand. What we have said is that line extension “weakens” a brand,” says Ries. And there are always exceptions to the rule she concedes. “Sometimes, a brand is so strong it can easily withstand some weakening. Early on, for example, the Microsoft brand was exceptionally strong so the company could use it on other software products and services.”
There is also the recent case of Tide, the leading detergent in America, opening a line of dry-cleaning establishments using the Tide brand name. And it might just work, feels Ries. As she explains “Because there are no strong brands or national chains in the category, this can possibly work, although we believe Procter & Gamble, the owners of Tide, would be better off with a new brand name.”
These exceptions notwithstanding there are way too many examples of companies which haven’t fallen for the line extension mistake and are doing very well in the process. Toyota is one such example. And one of the reasons for its success is the launch of three new brands in addition to Toyota. Scion, a brand for younger drivers. Prius, a hybrid brand. And Lexus, a luxury brand.
“Initially, Prius was a sub-brand of Toyota, but the company recently decided to create a totally separate brand. Prius has some 50 percent of the hybrid market in America and is a phenomenal success. The separate brand name will assure its success for decades to come,” says Ries.
What about Apple we ask her? How does she view the brand, everyone loves to love? Hasn’t it also made the line extension mistake by launching the Apple iPod, the Apple iPhone and the Apple iPad? “Apple is not a product brand. Apple is a company brand. Nobody says, I bought an Apple unless they have just visited a grocery store. They say I bought an iPod or an iPhone or an iPad, three brands that made Apple one of the most-profitable companies in the world,” explains Ries.
So in that sense Apple did not really make a line extension mistake. For every new product it created a new brand. And the success of this strategy reflects in the numbers. Apple’s competitors, Hewlett-Packard and Dell, line extended their brands into many of the same products. Both are in trouble. Last year, Apple made $41.7 billion in net profits. Dell made $2.4 billion. And Hewlett-Packard lost $12.7 billion.
But what about Samsung, which has been giving Apple a really tough time in almost all product categories that they compete in. “Currently, Samsung is an exception to the principle that line extension can weaken a brand. But that’s only in the short term. We predict that sometime in the future Samsung will suffer for its marketing mistake,” states Ries. “What keeps Samsung profitable is the principle that in every category there’s always room for a No.2 brand. Coca-Cola and Pepsi-Cola, for example,” she adds.
And Samsung is clearly not as profitable as Apple. Last year, Apple made almost twice as much in net profits as Samsung even though Apple’s revenues were smaller. Apple’s net profit margin was 26.7 percent compared to Samsung’s 11.5 percent.
The other two big companies in the mobile phone market have been Nokia and Blackberry. Nokia recently launched a smartphone under the new ‘Lumia’ brand name. On the face of it this is exactly what Ries would have recommended. The company launched a Lumia smartphone, and did not fall for the line extension trap. Given this, why is Nokia losing out in the smartphone business, we ask Ries.
“What’s a brand name? What’s a model name? What’s a sub-brand name?” she asks. “Many companies like Nokia think they can decide what is a brand name and what is a model or a sub-brand name. So Nokia considers “Lumia” to be its smartphone brand name. Not so. It’s consumers that make that decision. Consumers use iPhone as a brand name and not Apple. Consumers also use Nokia as the brand name and not Lumia. To consumers, Lumia is a model or sub-brand name.”
And there several reasons behind consumers not considering Lumia to be a brandname. “Look at a Lumia smartphone and you’ll see the word “Nokia” in big type. Look at an iPhone and you won’t see the word “Apple.” You’ll see the word “iPhone” in big type and just an Apple trademark,” says Ries.
And on top of that Lumia doesn’t even have a website of its own (
www.lumia.com is a website of a British IT company). “Lumia” doesn’t sound like a brand name and it doesn’t even have a website. That makes it very difficult to create the impression that Lumia is a brand. This isn’t the first line-extension mistake Nokia has made. Nokia was its brand name for a line of inexpensive cellphones. And today, Nokia is also using the Nokia name for its expensive smartphone products,” says Ries.
The Blackberry story goes along similar line. On the face of it, the company doesn’t seem to have made a line extension mistake. But Ries clearly does not buy that. “What’s a BlackBerry? Is it a smartphone with a physical keyboard? Or a smartphone with a touchscreen? It’s both, of course, and that’s exactly why BlackBerry has fallen into the line extension trap. To compete with the touchscreen iPhone, the BlackBerry company (formerly called Research In Motion) needed to introduce a new brand of touchscreen smartphone. It’s very difficult to build a brand that it has lost its identity.”
And given the lost focus its very difficult for these companies to go back to the days when they were immensely successful. As Ries puts it “It depends upon whether either company (i.e. Nokia and Blackberry) can do two things: (1) Develop an innovative new idea for smartphones, and (2) Introduce that innovative new idea with a new brand name. It’s hard for us to tell whether it’s possible to come up with a new idea for a smartphone. It could be too late.”
And this could work in favour of Samsung, feels Ries. “Every category ultimately has a leader brand and a strong No.2 brand. Since all three smartphone brands (Samsung, Nokia and BlackBerry) are line extensions, one line extension has to win the battle to become the No.2 brand to the iPhone. Samsung made massive investments in product design and development plus massive marketing investments,” says Ries.
So it’s logical that Samsung would become a strong No.2 brand. Furthermore, they priced their smartphones as less expensive than iPhones, another strategy that increased its market share although not its profitability. This has worked particularly well in Asia, feels Ries.
This success of Apple over Samsung comes with a caveat. As Ries explains it “Long-term, every category has two major brands. But they are normally quite different. Long-term, we see Apple as the leader in the high-end smartphone category and Samsung the leader in the “basic” smartphone category. Apple would make a mistake in introducing less-expensive smartphones. That would undermine its position at the high end.” And that is mistake that Apple needs to avoid.
Another massively successful company that has fallen prey to the line extension trap has been Google. The company has introduced a number of products under the Google brand name, but none of them have been massive money spinners like the Google search engine.
As Ries puts it “Currently, I can’t think of any Google product that is very successful. Google +, the company’s social media competitor, is nowhere near as big or as profitable as Facebook. Google’s most successful introduction has been Android, which now is being use by 75 percent of all smartphones.” Google bought the Android company, one of the reasons it probably didn’t use the Google name on the software.
What all the examples given above tell us is that line extensions have had a sketchy track record. So why do companies fall for it, over and over again? Ries has an answer for it. “As one CEO told us, We have a great company and great products. Why can’t we use our great company name on our great products?,” she points out. “Most chief executives believe that the only thing that really matters is the quality of their products and services their prices. Deep down inside, they don’t believe that the name or the marketing makes much of a difference.”
Then there is the pressure to keep increasing earnings. Chief executives are under pressure to increase sales and profits and they see product expansion (including line extensions) as the best way to achieve these goals. “The more important strategic decision is the question of “focus.” It’s our opinion that the best way into the mind is with a narrow focus. That’s not, however, the majority opinion, at least among top management people. Most companies are moving in exactly the opposite direction. They are line extending their brands,” says Ries.
Given this, CEOs don’t believe a new brand is worth the cost and effort required. It’s true, too, that many management people equate new brands with expensive advertising programs, feels Ries.
But that again is a perception that they have. Most big brands in the last ten years were not built because they advertised left, right and centre. Ries questions the assertion that it’s expensive to create a new brand. “It’s only expensive if a company uses advertising to launch the new brand. In our book, 
The Fall of Advertising & the Rise of PR, we recommend launching new brands with no advertising at all. Just PR or public relations. Advertising doesn’t have the credibility you need to launch a new brand.”
This is because when a consumer sees an advertisement for a new brand, his or her first reaction is, this can’t be very important because I’ve never heard of the brand. And that’s why some of the biggest brands in recent years like Amazon, Twitter and Google, used almost no advertising. They did, however, benefit from extensive media coverage, feels Ries.
In order to succeed in the years to come, companies will have to create multiple brands. “The future belongs to multiple-brand companies. But with one reservation. A company needs to be successful with its first brand before launching a second brand. You can’t build a successful company with two losing brands,” concludes Ries.

 
The article originally appeared in Forbes India edition dated July 12, 2013
 
(Vivek Kaul is a writer. He tweets @kaul_vivek)
 
 
 
 
 

Mr FM, interest rates in India should be at least 17%

P-CHIDAMBARAMVivek Kaul
On July 3, 2013, the finance minister P Chidambaram asked government public sector banks to cut interest rates. There was nothing new about the finance minister’s diktat. He has asked public sector banks to cut interest rates, several times in the recent past. “Reduction in base (or floor) rate will be a powerful stimulus to boost credit growth,” said Chidambaram.
In a statement made today(July 5, 2013) D Subbarao, the governor of the Reserve Bank of India, came out in support of Chidambaram. “When RBI cuts interest rates, expectation is that monetary transmission will take place and banks would respond. Some have responded and some haven’t,” Subbarao said. What Subbarao meant in simple English was that when RBI cuts interest rates, the expectation is that banks will also cut interest rates on loans.
But interest rates in India are much lower than they should be given the rate of consumer price inflation and the rate of economic growth. This is one of the well kept secrets of Indian banking.
The return on a 10 year
government bond as of now is around 7.4%. A 10 year government bond is a bond sold by the Indian government to finance its fiscal deficit or the difference between what it earns and what it spends.
Anyone investing in a bond basically looks at three things: the expected rate of inflation, the expected rate of economic growth and some sort of risk premium to compensate for the risk of investing in the bond. These numbers are added to come up with the expected return on a bond.
The consumer price inflation
in the month of May 2013 stood at 9.31%. As per most forecasts the Indian economy is expected to grow at anywhere between 5-6% during this financial year (i.e. the period between April 1, 2013 and March 31, 2014).
Lets assume that lending to the Indian government is considered to be totally risk free and hence consider a risk premium of 0%. Also to keep things simple, lets assume a consumer price of inflation of 9% and an expected economic growth of 5.5% during the course of the year. When we add these numbers we get 14.5%.
This is the rough return that a 10 year Indian government bond should give. But the return on it is around 7.4% or half of the projected 14.5%.
Why is that the case? The reason for that is very simple. Indian banks need to maintain a statutory liquidity ratio of 23% i.e. for every Rs 100 that a bank raises as a deposit, it needs to compulsorily invest Rs 23 in government bonds.
Hence, banks(and in turn citizens) are forced to lend to the government. Similarly, Life Insurance Corporation of India also invests a lot of money in government bonds. So there is a huge amount of money that gets invested in government bonds. This ensures that returns on government bonds are low in comparison to what they would really have been if people and banks were not forced to lend to the government.
The return on government bonds acts as a benchmark for interest rates on all other kind of loans. This is because lending to the government is deemed to the safest, and hence the return on other loans has to be greater than that, given the higher risk.
The 10 year bond yield or return is currently at 7.4%. The average base rate for banks or the minimum rate a bank is allowed to charge to its customers, is around 10.25%. So most loans are made at rates of interest higher than 10.25%. The difference between the 10 year bond yield and the average base rate of banks is around 285 basis points (one basis point is one hundredth of a percentage).
If the 10 year bond yield would have been at 14.5%, then the interest rates on loans would have been greater than 17%(14.5% + 285 basis points). But since the government forces people to lend to it, the interest rates are lower. This act of the people being forced to lend to the government is referred to as financial repression.
Economist Stephen D King in his book
When the Money Runs Out makes an interesting point about financial repression in the context of western economies. As he writes “our savings will increasingly be diverted to government interests, whether or not those interests really deliver a good rate of return for society.”
While this may happen in the Western societies as governments resort to financial repression to repay the huge amounts of debt that they have accumulated, it is already happening in India.
Financial repression is a major reason behind the Congress led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government going in for a large number of harebrained social programmes (the most recent being the right to food security, which has been brought in through the ordinance route). They know that money required for all these programmes can easily be borrowed because 23% of all bank deposits need to be invested in government bonds issued to finance the excess of government expenditure over revenue.
This is also why interest rates offered on bank fixed deposits are close to the rate of consumer price inflation, leading to a zero per cent real rate of return on investment. This is also makes people buy gold and real estate and invest in Ponzi investment schemes, in search of a higher rate of return. The cost of financial repression is being borne by the citizens of this country.

Also, the idea behind Chidambaram’s call for lower interest rates is that people are likely to borrow and spend more. And this in turn will get economic growth going again. Theoretically this just sounds perfect.
But then theory does not always match practice. Banks raise deposits at a certain rate of interest and then give out loans at a higher rate of interest. So unless the interest rate offered on deposits goes down, the rate of interest charged on loans cannot come down.
Banks are not in a position to cut interest rates on deposits as of now (
As I have explained here). Hence, it is not possible for them to cut interest rates on loans. Any bank which cuts interest rates on loans will essentially end up with lower profits.
Also even if interest rates on loans are cut, it may not lead to people borrowing and spending money. There are several reasons for the same. Lets first consider car loans.
Car sales have fallen for the last eight months in comparison to the same period during the year before. High interest rates are a reason offered time and again for slowing car sales. But some simple maths tells us that can’t really be the case.
Lets consider the case of an individual who borrows Rs 5 lakh to buy a car at an interest rate of 12% repayable over a period of 7 years. The equated monthly instalment for this works out to Rs 8826. Lets say the bank is able to cut the interest rate by 0.5% to 11.5%. In this case the EMI works out to Rs 8693, or Rs 133 lower. Even if the bank cuts interest rates by 1%, the EMI goes down by Rs 265 only. If we consider a lower repayment period of 5 years, an interest rate cut of 0.5% leads to an EMI cut of Rs 126. An interest rate cut of 1% leads to an EMI cut of Rs 251. The point is that no one is going to go buy a car because the EMI has come down by a couple of hundred rupees.
This is something the people who run car companies seem to understand.
As Arvind Saxena, managing director, Volkswagen Passenger Cars, told DNA in an interview carried out in late January 2013 “Fundamentally nothing has changed that should really prop up sales. If interest rates go down by 25 or 50 basis points, it doesn’t change anything overnight.”
RC Bhargava, a car industry veteran and the Chairman of 
Maruti Suzuki India was more vociferous than Saxena of Volkswagen when he told Business Standard in a recent interview “In India, over 70 per cent of car purchases are financed by banks. An interest rate reduction of, say, one percentage point doesn’t change a person’s decision of buying or not buying a car…With the uncertainties prevalent today, a consumer does not know what his job would be like after a year – whether or not he will have an incremental income, or even a job.”
Of course when people are not buying cars, it is unlikely they will buy homes, unless we are talking about those who have to put their black money to use. A cut in interest rates will bring down EMIs significantly on home loans. But even with lower EMIs people are unlikely to buy homes. This is because the cost of homes especially in cities has gone up big time making them totally unaffordable for most people.
The broader point is that just asking banks to cut interest rates doesn’t make any sense without trying to address the other issues at play.

The article originally appeared on www.firstpost.com on July 5, 2013
(Vivek Kaul is a writer. He tweets @kaul_vivek)