Obama is good for gold: Target $3,500 by 2013-end?

Vivek Kaul
So now that Barack Obama is all set for a second term as the President of the United States of America, gold is set for another rally. As I write this gold is quoting at $1723.2 per ounce (1 troy ounce equals 31.1grams), up $40 or 2.4% in a day.
And this rally is likely to continue. There are several reasons for the same.
a) The Second Term President phenomenon: Second term presidents in the United States(US) usually tend to go overboard with spending money. This extra spending cannot be always matched by an increase in government revenue and is matched by printing dollars to meet this gap. This money printing devalues the dollar.
As Jan Skoyles the head of research at a U.K. bullion dealer called The Real Asset Co., put it in a recent research note “our research also found Presidents granted a second-term have a marvellous time showing everyone just how much money they can spend, devaluing the currency further and making that precious metal glister even more. It seems that during their first terms Presidents are more tempered than in their second. Is this because they decide to blow the doors off and show everyone what a great person they are, leaving the next guy to pick up the mess?”
And the numbers tell the story. Gold rallied 88.8% during George Bush Junior’s second term. It had rallied only 24.6% in his first term. The same stands true for Bill Clinton as well, with gold losing 5.6% in his first term and gaining 16.9% in his second term. The table here tells the complete story.
b) Democrats destroy the dollar more than Republicans: The Democratic Party to which Obama belongs, has a better track record of destroying the dollar and hence pushing up the gold price. As Skoyles puts it “The evidence showing Democrats destroying the dollar more than Republicans…is over-whelming. Even though Democrats prove to be the best party for gold investors worried about the gold price, the Republicans don’t do too badly themselves – accounting for a net increase of 121.27% across their terms in office since Nixon, versus 358.68% for the Democrats.” Richard Nixon was the President of America between 1969 and 1974.
c) Ben Bernanke will continue to be the Chairman of the Federal Reserve of the United States: One of the things that Mitt Romney, the Republican challenger to Barack Obama, had made very clear was that he would fire Ben Bernanke, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve of the United States, the American central bank, if he became the President of the United States.
As he had said in August earlier this year “I would want to select someone new and someone who shared my economic views…I want someone to provide monetary stability that leads to a strong dollar and confidence that America is not going to go down the road that other nations have gone down, to their peril.” His running mate, Paul Ryan wanted dollar to be “Sound Money” again. “We want to pursue a sound-money strategy so that we can get back the King Dollar,” Ryan said.
With Obama getting a second term, Ben Bernanke is likely to continue as the Chairman. Also he might now even get a third term when his current term ends in 2014. This means that the easy money policy run by the Federal Reserve is likely to continue and this can only mean good things for the price of gold.
Bernanke has been running a policy of quantitative easing and printing dollars, in the hope that banks lend these dollars, and people spend them, and this in turn helps in the revival of the American economy. But this money printing has also led to a stupendous rise in the price of gold.
Any round of quantitative easing ensures that there are more dollars in the financial system than before. The threat is that the greater number of dollars will chase the same number of goods and services. This will lead to an increase in their prices. But this hasn’t happened till now. Nevertheless that hasn’t stopped investors from buying gold to protect themselves from this debasement of money. Gold cannot be debased. Unlike paper money it cannot be created out of thin air.
During earlier days, paper money was backed by gold or silver. When governments printed more paper money than the precious metals backing it, people simply turned up with their paper at the central bank and government mints, and demanded that paper money be converted into gold or silver. Now, whenever people see more and more of paper money being printed, the smarter ones simply go out and buy that gold. Hence, bad money (that is, paper money) is driving out good money (that is, gold) away from the market.
d) The US Fed will go slow on manipulating the gold market: Another theory going around is that the US Federal Reserve has been manipulating the price of gold over the years with help from bullion banks. As the gold expert Tehmaas Gorimaar writes “One form of manipulation is the through setting of low lease rates for gold and silver. Low rates encourage bullion banks like J.P Morgan and HSBC to borrow gold and silver from central banks, dump the metal on the market and use the proceeds to invest in paper assets, thereby driving up the prices of these assets.” (you can read a more detailed argument on this here).
This manipulation to hold back the price of gold seems to have gone up in the run up to the Presidential election. As Gorimaar puts it“Because the dollar, like all other currencies, is a fiat currency, and gold is the antithesis of the dollar. A runaway gold price means that the so called “strong dollar policy” touted by American presidents isn’t working. Also, higher gold and a lower dollar would mean higher commodity prices, since commodities are priced in dollars. A weak dollar would also have given Mitt Romney more fodder for attack.” Hence, Bernanke was helping Obama here. Now what would be the quid pro quo for the same? Another term for Bernanke as the Chairman?
With the elections over the Federal Reserve is likely to take a breather on this front and gold is set to rally. “I think you’ll see gold at $3500 per ounce and silver above $100 per ounce by the end of 2013. This is because of the extreme suppression of their prices in this election year,” says Gorimaar.
e) Does that mean gold will rally in India? While the gold is set to rally in dollars, for Indians to make money it has to rally in rupee terms. For that to happen the Indian rupee either has to remain at the current levels against the dollar or depreciate further. Let us try and understand this through an example. Gold currently quotes at around $1723 per ounce. One dollar is worth Rs 54.3. This means one ounce of gold is priced at Rs 93558.9 per ounce (one troy ounce equals 31.1grams). If one dollar was worth Rs 50, then gold would have been at Rs 86,150 per ounce. If one dollar was worth Rs 60, gold would have been at Rs 1.03,380 per ounce. Hence more the rupee depreciates against the dollar; the greater will be the return on gold in rupee terms. For that to happen the UPA government needs to continue running the screwed up economic policy that it has been over the last few years. And that’s one thing they have been doing even better than all the scams that they have been running. So gold should rally in rupee terms as well.
The article originally appeared on www.firstpost.com on November 7, 2012. http://www.firstpost.com/economy/obama-is-good-for-gold-target-3500-by-2013-end-517752.html)
(Vivek Kaul is a writer. He can be reached at [email protected])

Why Arvind Kejriwal should continue copy pasting


Vivek Kaul
Delhi based journalists who cover politics have been at their wits ends trying to explain and understand this phenomenon called Arvind Kejriwal. They have never seen an animal like him before. And since they don’t understand him, they tend to run him down.
What is new in what Kerjiwal is saying is their constant complaint. All this was already in the public domain is a point they often make. Take the case of the links between Robert Vadra, the son-in-law of Sonia Gandhi, and DLF, the biggest listed real estate company in India. The moment Kejriwal started talking about the link, several journalists who work for Delhi headquartered newspapers and television channels were everywhere trying to tell us that all this was already reported by The Economic Times in a story that appeared in March 2011.
They were of course right about the same. But the question is even with The Economic Times, the largest business daily in India and the second largest business daily writing about the link between DLF and Vadra, how many Indians actually knew about it?
But when Arvind Kejriwal went to town with the issue it was reported on almost every news channel in English and Hindi, and almost every newspaper in the country (except a particular Delhi based broadsheet) had it as the lead story on the front page the next day. And that being the case every Indian who gives any newspaper even a customary glance came to know about the issue.
Yes the link between Vadra and DLF was in the public domain. But it was in the limited public domain. The Economic Times despite having the size it has is only the seventh largest read English daily in the country. The biggest vernacular papers have a circulation which is any times the circulation that of The Economic Times. Hence, with Arvind Kejriwal and India Against Corruption exposing the links between Vadra and DLF, the issue was placed on the national agenda.
What also happened was that once Kejriwal went to town with the issue, newspapers and television channels got more courage to report on the issue and dug up more dirt. A story in The Hindu brought to our notice that how an honest IAS officer Ashok Khemka was transferred for poking holes in the dealings between Vadra and DLF. Several newspapers and websites reported how DLF gave Vadra a Rs 50 crore advance, which remained with Vadra for more than three years. Vadra used this interest free money to go on a property buying spree.
This advance was given against a plot of land of 3.5 acres that Vadra bought for Rs 7.5 crore and within months sold it to DLF for Rs 58 crore.  The Business Standard reported that the Haryana chief minister might Bhupinder Singh Hooda have had more than helped Vadra in this initial purchase of this 3.5 acres. Also for this purchase Vadra issued a cheque of Rs 7.5 crore without even having 1% of that money in his bank account. This was done with the help of the seller who was close to Hooda not encashing the cheque immediately.
The Daily News and Analysis reported that a part of the advance was used to buy up land in Bikaner which went up in price by 40 times since Vadra first started purchasing plots of lands in 2009. The point being that once Kejriwal raised the issue several media houses unearthed more and more angles to the basic story of the link up between Vadra and DLF. This happened because once Kejriwal raised the issue it came from being in the limited public domain (as it was when reported by The Economic Times) to being in the full public domain.
The same thing happened when Kejriwal placed Nitin Gadkari, the president of the Bhartiya Janata Party on the block. Once Kejriwal raised the issue about Gadkari indulging in corruption the same set of journalists went to town saying that there is nothing new in what Kejriwal is saying. It is all there in the public domain.  But Kejriwal’s expose led to newspapers unearthing more and more muck about Gadkari and firmly showed that his claims of being a social entrepreneur were all a one big hogwash.
The same model was followed after Kejriwal attacked Reliance. Several editors of business news channels and business newspapers were seen on prime time television right after Kejriwal’s press conference trying to tell the world at large that their newspaper or television channel had already reported extensively on the issue of Reliance first agreeing to a certain price for KG D6 gas and then wanting a substantially higher price for it.
This of course was true. But then how many people read business newspapers in this country? The answer is around 1.5million, which is around 0.13% of India’s population. Does that even qualify as being in the public domain?
And let’s not even get into the television rating points of business news channels. They are a joke.
As Gyan Chaturvedi wrote in the brilliant satire Narak Yatra
इस देश में लिखे को पढता कौन है?
लिखते रहो सालो.
कितने पढेंगे.
कितने पढ़े-लिखे हैं इस देश में?
और पढ़े लिखों में भी कितने पढ़ते हैं?
और जो पढ़ते हैं, उनमें से कितने समझते हैं?
और जो समझते हैं,उन्हें सोचने की फुर्सत कहाँ हैं?
वे महंगाई, दफ्तर तथा बीवी-बच्चों के पचड़ों में ही मर खप रहे हैं.
बाकी देश तो अनपढ़ है ही,पढ़े-लिखों का भी डर नहीं.
So given that, yes, Arvind Kejriwal is copy pasting from what has already been reported in the media before (though I have my differences on this having written extensively on the link between Vadra and DLF, what Kejriwal and his team put together on the issue was much more than what was reported in The Economic Times March 2011 story). Nevertheless, it is his copy pasting that is really putting out these issues in the real public domain and not the one created by television news channels and business newspapers.
And hence it’s important that he continues.
(Vivek Kaul is a writer. He can be reached at [email protected])

Do we want a society where everything is up for sale?

Michael J. Sandel is one of the foremost political philosophers of our times. He is the Anne T. and Robert M. Bass Professor of Government at Harvard University, where he has taught political philosophy since 1980. His book, Justice: What’s the Right Thing to Do?, relates the big questions of political philosophy to the most vexing issues of our time.  His new book, What Money Can’t Buy: The Moral Limits of Markets, argues that we have drifted from being a market economy to being a market society. In the book Sandel tries to answer what is the proper role of markets in a democratic society, and how can we protect the moral and civic goods that markets do not honour and money cannot buy. Sandel will be in India early next year speaking at the Jaipur Literature Festival. In this freewheeling interview he speaks to Vivek Kaul.
One of the reasons you wrote What Money Can’t Buy was to reintroduce moral philosophy into conversations about market forces. Why was that necessary?
The last three decades have been a period of market triumphalism. The era started with the likes of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan proclaimed their conviction that markets not, government, held the key to prosperity and freedom. We have drifted from having a market economy to becoming a market society. And the difference is this. A market economy is a valuable and effective tool for organising productivity activity. And market economy has brought prosperity and affluence to countries around the world. A market society is different. A market society is a place where almost everything is up for sale. It’s a way of life in which uses markets to allocate health, education, public safety, national security, environmental protection, recreation, procreation, and other social goods. This was unheard of three decades back. And when this happens market values crowd out non market values worth caring about. So I think we need to step back and have a public debate about what should be the role of money in markets in our society. We need to ask where market mechanism suits the public good and where they don’t belong. There has been an expansion of market and market values, into spheres of life, where they don’t belong.
You just said that markets have colonised too much of society, spreading unchecked into healthcare, education and military matters with unforeseen moral consequences. Could you explain that in some detail? 
Let me give you a couple of examples. In Iraq and Afghanistan there were more paid military private contractors on the ground than U.S. military troops. We never had a public debate whether we wanted to outsource war to private companies. But this is what happened.
Now take education many school districts in the United States are experimenting with the use of cash incentives to improve academic performance especially for students with disadvantaged backgrounds. So they are offered cash incentives for good grades, for high test scores and in one case they even offered young children two dollars for each book they read. Now the goal is of course a good one to improve academic performance. But the danger is that offering students money to learn may teach them the wrong lesson. It may teach students to regard reading books as a chore against making money rather than an activity which is intrinsically satisfying and worthwhile. That’s my worry.
Any other examples?
The number of private guards in Great Britain and the United States is twice the number of public police officers. Or consider the aggressive marketing of prescription drugs by pharmaceutical companies in rich countries. The funny thing is if you have ever seen the television commercials that accompany the evening news in the United States, you might come around to believing that the greatest health crisis in the world is not malaria or river blindness or sleeping sickness, but erectile dysfunction.
In your book you even talk about queues being up for sale nowadays. Can you share that with our readers?
In recent decades the ethic of the queue is being replaced by the ethic of money. The principle of first come first serve is being replaced by the ability to pay. This is happening in large places and small. If one goes to an amusement park it used to be the place everyone had to wait in the queue for the popular rides and attractions. Now most amusement parks have a fast track ticket that enables those who can afford to pay extra to go the head of the queue. The same is true for airports. Those who buy first-class or business-class tickets can use priority lanes that take them to the front of the line for screening. British Airways calls it Fast Track, which is a service that allows the high paying passengers of the airline jump the queue at passport and immigration control.
So what is the issue with that?
It may not be a morally serious problem at amusement parks or airports but increasingly the ethic of money is replacing the ethic of the queue throughout our social life. In Washington DC if one wants to attend a hearing of the United States Congress, often there are long queues. Sometimes people even wait in the queue overnight. Now lobbyists love to attend the Congressional hearings but they don’t have the time to stand in a queue. So they now hire line standing companies that in turn hire homeless people and others to wait in the queue so that the lobbyists can take his or her place in the queue just before the hearing begins and he can thus climb the queue. The same thing can be done by hiring the land standing companies to attend the US Supreme Court’s oral arguments. So what may seem innocent enough in amusement parks or concerts or waiting to buy the latest Apple iPod actually raises more serious questions when it is used to even in institutions which are representatives of governments.
But those who jump the queue really don’t see it like that? 
They complain that queuing discriminates in favour of people who have the most free time. Yes that is right. But in the same way as markets discriminate in favour of people who have most money. Markets allocate goods on the ability and willingness to pay, queues allocate goods based on the ability and willingness to wait. And there is no reason to assume that the willingness to pay for a good is a better measure of its value to a person that the willingness to wait. 
Why did Bruce Springsteen change only $95 per ticket for his shows in New Jersey in 2009, when he could have filled up the venue even by charging more? What does this tell us in the context of the broader argument you are trying to make?
Bruce Springsteen, in some cases, does not charge the full market price for tickets to his live concerts. He does that even though he could make more money by doing so. He limits the ticket price. And the reason he does this is partly to keep faith with his working class fans. And also because he recognises that his live performances are not purely market goods but part of the performance and part of what draws people to Bruce Springsteen and the spirit in which they gather together.  A part of enjoying the Springsteen concert is the relationship between the performer and his fans, and the spirit in which they gather. This example is a metaphor for the kinds of choices that we should make, discuss and debate throughout our social lives and our civic lives.
Any other example that you could share with us?
When Pope Benedict XVI made his first visit to the United States, free tickets were distributed through local parishes. But the demand for tickets far exceeded the supply of seats. And soon a market was those tickets started to develop and one ticket sold online for more than $200. Church officials condemned this on the grounds that you cannot pay to celebrate a sacrament. Turning what are essentially sacred goods into what are essentially instruments of profits values them in the wrong way. 
Do you think as a society we’re averse to talking about this connection, the moral implications of economics?

Yes, especially in recent decades we have not really debated the moral implications of economics. We do have some debate about distributive questions in relation to economics but what we have been more reluctant to do is another very important moral aspect of economics and that is the question that which goods and social practices should be governed by markets i.e. by the effect of buying and selling. Which goods should be commodified and be up for sale and which goods are damaged or degraded when we put a price tag on them. But most economists prefer not to deal with moral questions, at least not in their role as economists.
Can you explain through an example?
Most people would agree that we should not tag a market in children up for adoption because it would commodify and objectify children and possible erode the norm of unconditional parental love. Take another example most people would agree that we shouldn’t have an open market in votes in a democratic society even though from the standpoint of economic efficiency it’s hard to explain why not have a market in votes? Many people don’t use their votes. So as some free market economists advocate why shouldn’t people be free to sell their votes to other people who are willing to buy them? I think the reason we don’t allow this because it is considered that civic duties should not be regarded as private property but should be viewed instead as public responsibilities. Hence to outsource them is to demean them and value them in the wrong way. There are many areas of civic life where we have allowed money and markets to govern without having a serious public debate about the moral limits to market reasoning.
You talk about two objections to the concept of the market: the fairness objection and the corruption objection. What are these? Could you explain through an example?
Some free market economists argue that having a free market there should be a global free market in kidneys or other human organs for transplantation, and this would increase the supply. But there are two possible objections to this view. The fairness objection worries that a market in human organs would not involve truly voluntary exchanges but the poor would effectively coerced by the poverty and desperate need, to the affluent. That’s the fairness objection. The fairness objection worries about the inequality that may undermine the voluntary character of exchanges. The corruption objection is for reasons that go beyond inequality.  It makes the argument that it’s a violation of human dignity to treat our body as a collection of spare parts to be bought and sold for money. The corruption objection worries about market values degrading or corrupting important human good. This is an example of what I mean by the distinction between the fairness argument and the corruption argument. Both arguments have to be a part of any public debate about the moral limit of economic reasoning.
A major point that comes out in your book is that monetary incentives sometimes undermine the intrinsic one and leads to worse performance. Why is that?
Some years ago in Switzerland they were trying to decide where to locate a nuclear waste site. No community wants one in its backyard. There was a small town that seemed to be the likely place for the nuclear place site. The residents of the town were asked to in a survey carried out by economists shortly before a referendum on the issue if they would vote to accept a nuclear waste site in their community, if the Swiss Parliament decided to build it there. Around 51% or a little over half of the respondents said they would accept it. The reason was that their sense of civic duty outweighed their concern about risks. The economists carrying out the survey then added a little twist to the entire exercise and asked a follow-up question.
And what was that?
They asked the residents of the community that suppose the parliament proposed building the nuclear waste facility in their community and at the same time offered to compensate them with an annual monetary payment, would they still favour it? You might sense that the number would have gone up to 80 or 90% but in fact the opposite happened. The support went down and not up. Adding the financial inducement to the offer reduced the rate of acceptance to 25% from the earlier 51%. The offer of money reduced the willingness of people to host the nuclear site in their community. Even when the economists upped the monetary incentive further the decision of the people did not change. The residents stood firm even when they were offered yearly cash payments of $8,700, which was more than the median monthly income of the area.
So what is the moral of the story?
This is an illustration in which a cash payment can crowd out a non market value. When the people were asked to make a sacrifice for a common good without paying them the majority said yes out of the sense of civic responsibility. But when they were asked changed their mind many of them said we didn’t want to be bribed. The offer of money changed the character of the offer. What had been a question of civic sacrifice for the common good now became a financial transaction, and many of those who were willing to accept the setting up of a nuclear site for the purpose of a common good, felt they were not willing to be bribed to subject themselves and their family to risk.
What is commercialisation effect?
Commercialisation effect is when buying and selling of a good previously governed by non market norms changes the character of the good. If you buy a flat screen television and gift it to me, then the flat screen television is worth the same either way. It would be the same good. But the same may not be true about health, education, national security, criminal justice, family relationships, civic life etc. In these areas introducing market mechanisms and cash incentives they change the character of the good and they drive out non market values worth caring about. The commercialisation effect happens when the offers of money the attitudes people have for the good they have exchanged.  So going back to the education example where children are being paid to study and learn and go through the reading material, the commercilsation effect suggests that the performance of the children may improve in the short run but they change children’s attitudes towards reading and learning. In the long term they drive out the intrinsic love of learning.
Any other example?
Here I would like to give one another example which is perhaps the most classic example of this effect and that is prostitution. Most people would agree, even most free market economists would agree, that there is a difference between prostitution which is paid sex and non instrumental and non monetised sexual intimacy. And so perhaps the classic illustration of the commercialisation effect is prostitution. Another example is friendship. Till recently, you could bolster your online popularity by hiring some good looking “friends” for your Facebook page at 99 cents a month. This website was shut down after it emerged that photos of models that were being used were unauthorised. Even with this, people will agree that friendship is something money can’t buy, somehow, the money that buys the friendship dissolves it, and turns it into something else.
Can you summarise the entire argument for our readers?
The marketisation of everything means that people who are rich and people who are not rich have started to live increasingly separate lives. And that is not good for democracy, nor is it a satisfying way to live. Democracy does not require perfect equality, but it does require that citizens share in a common life. For this is how we learn to come to care about the common good. And so, in the end, the question of markets is really a question about how we want to live together. Do we want a society where everything is up for sale? Or are there certain moral and civic goods that markets do not honour and money cannot buy?
A shorter version of the interview appeared in the Daily News and Analysis on November 5, 2012. http://www.dnaindia.com/money/interview_do-we-want-a-society-where-everything-is-up-for-sale_1760214
(Interviewer Kaul is a writer. He can be reached at [email protected])

Hiring the best is not always the best way to hire

Abhijit Bhaduri works as the Chief Learning Officer for the Wipro group. He lives in Bangalore, India. Prior to this he led HR teams at Microsoft, PepsiCo, Colgate and Tata Steel and worked in India, SE Asia and US. Bhaduri is an alumnus of Xavier Labor Relations Institute (XLRI), Jamshedpur and has written two bestselling novels Mediocre But Arrogant and Married But Available. In this interview he speaks to Vivek Kaul about his latest book Don’t Hire the Best.
You write that companies can either hire the best or they can hire the right person. What do you mean by that?
I believe that successful hiring happens when there is a fit between the person, the role he/she is expected to do and the culture of the organization where the person will work. Most hiring tends to get limited to checking what is already written in the resume. People get hired for their competence and fired for personality. It is possible to teach someone how to craft strategy but it takes many years to teach someone to be resilient or dramatically change their ability to handle stress. At the time of hiring spend more time assessing what the job needs and what will take a long time to train the person in.
Around 95%of the hiring happens by what people write on their resume. You believe that should not be case. Hiring should be based on figuring out competencies and personalities or what you call the right fit for the job. Could you explain that in detail with examples?
The first step the hiring team should put together is a set of requirements for the job. This is called a Success Profile and has four components – Education, Experience, Competencies and Personality. 
Education can be understood in terms of academic qualifications. Does the person need a degree or license to ensure that the person has been trained in? For example, if you are hiring a doctor, look for the degree in medicine or surgery. 
Then look for the quality of the experience that the role demands. Don’t just speak about years of experience. What kind of experiences should a person have is a more relevant question. Some people may have gathered that experience in a shorter time and some may have taken longer.
Can you give us an example here?
For example, you could say the person should have developed three new formulations, instead of saying, that the role demands someone with “10-12 years of experience”. Then look for the competencies that the role needs. Don’t look for a laundry list. Identify the two or three most important competencies, which if missing will make the person fail. For example, the ability to coach and develop a team would be a valuable competency to look for in a leader whose success depends on coaching the team. Finally, add the missing piece – personality. Identify the one or two personality elements that will impact the success or failure in the job. For instance, writing software often will means have the ability to concentrate for long stretches of time and to be very detail-oriented. Just hiring a qualified software professional who has the years of experience may not be enough.
My first lesson in hiring was that it did not matter what I asked,” you write. That statement sounds a little paradoxical. Can you explain what do you mean by it?
Interviewers will often find clever questions to stump the interviewee. ‘If you could be an animal which animal would you be?’ I know an interviewer who will invariably ask the candidate to name the capital of some obscure country. These questions give the interviewer an ego massage but do not yield any insight. Every question must yield an insight about two things: the ability of the candidate to do the job well or to be able to fit with the culture of the organization. I am assuming that someone has assessed the technical capability of the individual. For example an ad agency will give a candidate a “copy writer’s test” to assess writing skills and proficiency levels.
Why is it very important to assess the personality of a candidate while hiring him? All this in a way sounds too complicated. Wouldn’t just flipping a coin be a more accurate way of hiring?
Most interviewers are able to evaluate how the education and experience of the candidate fits the role. Competencies can best be evaluated through what is called Behavioral Event Interviewing. Personality assessment needs skill. There are hundreds of instruments that one could choose from. It takes a trained person to know which is the right instrument to use. That is like saying, there is no pint checking your cholesterol level, if you have a problem with your hearing. So it is not good enough to use any instrument – you need to find the right instrument that will tell you about the aspects of personality that will impact job performance. For example if you are hiring someone to be an Air Traffic Controller, which is the most stressful job in the world, it is useful to know if the candidate has a high ability to handle stress. Flipping a coin would be more accurate of your current approach to hiring is successful less than 50% of the time.
You talk about people taking interviews making mistakes. One of the mistakes is you point out is articulation bias. What is that?
Interviewing as a process is heavily stacked in favor of those who are strong in communication. Interviewers very often tend to believe that those who are able to articulate ideas well will be able to learn what they do not know. The reverse is also true. Sometimes people who are doing technical jobs do not need to be great communicators. The assessment process must be able to distinguish where the bias is coming into play.
What are the other mistakes that interviewers tend to make?
Not thinking through the role: The biggest mistake interviewers make is to not think though what is really needed to succeed in that role. That involves all four aspects of a Success Profile: Education, Experience, Competencies and Personality.
Not explaining enough details of the role : why has the role been created; who are the stakeholders; what results would the incumbent be accountable for etc
Trying to oversell the job or the organization: This is a sure recipe for disappointment. The candidate and the employer must take an informed decision.
Talking about resumes, do candidates fudge their resumes. What is your experience in this regard?
Some people deliberately misrepresent their qualifications and work experiences. There are people who have sent resumes that detail degrees which don’t exist, from colleges that never were there and worked for companies that never existed on projects that didn’t happen. These are thankfully the exceptions.
Can you share a couple of very different interview experiences with us?
I once interviewed a person when I was in an ad agency, who answered the first question with a limerick, the second one with a poem and the third with a song that he had composed. He was being interviewed for a job as a copywriter. We hired him.
It is said that people don’t leave their jobs, they leave their bosses. How true is that in your experience?
The boss represents the organization in most cases. The boss has the ability to reward or punish or recognize or even ignore. People quit when they feel they are not being treated fairly. Very often the actions of the boss give people that feeling. Having a great boss can make even a tough job very rewarding. That’s why the personality of the person who manages you matters a lot.
There have been cases in the past of some big Indian software majors hiring engineers just on the basis of a written test because they need to hire so many people.  How do you see something like that?
Whether a test is the right thing to do or not depends on what the test is supposed to measure. The B-School admission process also has a written test that is given the greatest weightage in most institutes. Intellectual capacity, ability to comprehend language etc can be measured through a written test. A good hiring system looks at getting multiple data points using different methodologies eg written tests, interviews, psychometric tools etc.
What are you tips to people giving interviews? What are the five things they should keep in mind? 

1.      Research the job
2.      Research the organization’s culture
3.      Be diplomatic but be honest about what you want.
4.      Think about the skills that you have that the employer would need. Highlight those.
5.      Be relaxed and well rested. The employer also wants to hire the right candidate. Make it easy for them to select you.
(The interview originally appeared on www.firstpost.com on November 3,2012. http://www.firstpost.com/business/hiring-the-best-is-not-always-the-best-way-to-hire-513418.html)
(Vivek Kaul is a writer. He can be reached at [email protected])