{"id":3928,"date":"2015-11-02T13:30:55","date_gmt":"2015-11-02T08:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/teekhapan.wordpress.com\/?p=3928"},"modified":"2015-11-02T13:30:55","modified_gmt":"2015-11-02T08:00:55","slug":"with-a-deficient-monsoon-no-acche-din-for-rural-economy-anytime-soon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vivekkaul.com\/2015\/11\/02\/with-a-deficient-monsoon-no-acche-din-for-rural-economy-anytime-soon\/","title":{"rendered":"With a deficient monsoon, no acche din for rural economy anytime soon"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/a> For two years in a row India has had a deficient monsoon. In its end of season report,<\/a> the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the nation\u2019s weather forecaster, stated that \u201crainfall over the country as a whole was 86% of its long period average (LPA). Thus years 2014 & 2015 was the fourth case of two consecutive all India deficient monsoon years during the last 115 years<\/em>.\u201d<\/p>\n IMD uses rainfall data for the last 50 years to come up with the long period average. If the rainfall is between 96% and 104% of the 50 year average, then it is categorised as normal. If it is between 90% and 96% of the 50 year average is categorised as below-normal. And anything below 90% is categorised as deficient.<\/p>\n If something has happened only four times in 115 years, there is clearly reason to worry. Further, IMD at the beginning of June 2015 had predicted that the rainfall this year will be 12% below normal at 88% of the long period average(LPA) and they have more or less been proven right, with the rainfall coming in at 86%. The funny thing is that at the end of June it looked that the IMD might have got the forecast wrong.<\/p>\n The rainfall in June was at 116% of the long period average. Nevertheless, IMD proved to be right given that the country saw deficient rainfall in the coming months. It was at \u201c84% of LPA in July, 78% of LPA in August, and 76% of LPA in September<\/em>.\u201d<\/p>\n The accompanying table from Crisil Research gives a breakdown of monsoon performance across various parts of the country.
\nThis column has been due for a while now and I am finally getting around to writing it. Given that there has hardly been any mention of this topic in the mainstream media, it is still not too late to write about it.<\/p>\n
\nSouth-west monsoon performance across regions<\/strong><\/p>\n