{"id":3624,"date":"2015-07-07T18:06:52","date_gmt":"2015-07-07T12:36:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/teekhapan.wordpress.com\/?p=3624"},"modified":"2015-07-07T18:06:52","modified_gmt":"2015-07-07T12:36:52","slug":"should-a-bad-monsoon-be-such-a-big-worry","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vivekkaul.com\/2015\/07\/07\/should-a-bad-monsoon-be-such-a-big-worry\/","title":{"rendered":"Should a bad monsoon be such a big worry?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/a> Hence, the rainfall between June 1 and July 1, 2015, has been 13% above the 50 year average. This is surprising given that IMD has forecast a deficient monsoon this year. In early June it said that the monsoon will be 88% of the long-term average. The IMD also said that the probability of a deficient monsoon was as high as 66%<\/a> The nation’s weather forecaster uses rainfall data for the last 50 years to define what is normal.<\/p>\n If the rainfall forecast for the year is between 96% and 104% of the 50 year average, then it is categorised as normal. A forecast of between 90% and 96% of the 50 year average is categorised as below-normal. And anything below 90% is categorised as deficient.<\/p>\n The monsoon season is still under progress, hence, whether IMD’s monsoon forecast turns out to be correct remains to be seen. The question that crops up here is-what is the past forecasting record of IMD like? The economists Kaushik Das and Taimur Baig of Deutsche Bank Research have written a report on this. The accompanying chart from Das and Baig’s research report makes for a very interesting reading.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n
\nThe India Meteorological Department (IMD) puts out a weekly press release on the monsoon. As per the latest press release: “For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year’s monsoon has so far upto 01 July been 13% above the Long Period Average (LPA).” The nation’s weather forecaster uses rainfall data for the last 50 years to come up with the long period average.<\/p>\n