\n
Vivek Kaul\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n \u201cSo, the bosses are really mad at us,\u201d said Harshad, the senior most analyst at the brokerage firm. Vivek Kaul\u00a0 \u201cSo, the bosses are really mad at us,\u201d said Harshad, the senior most analyst at the brokerage firm. \u201cOh, why?\u201d asked Ketan. \u201cWhat did we do now? I have recommended every stock that they wanted me to recommend.\u201d \u201cI guess it must have to do with all the Sensex forecasts. There was even … <\/p>\n Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"qubely_global_settings":"","qubely_interactions":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[32,39,68],"tags":[3294],"qubely_featured_image_url":null,"qubely_author":{"display_name":"Vivek Kaul","author_link":"https:\/\/vivekkaul.com\/author\/vivekkaul\/"},"qubely_comment":0,"qubely_category":"FirstBiz<\/a> Humor<\/a> Satire<\/a>","qubely_excerpt":"Vivek Kaul\u00a0 \u201cSo, the bosses are really mad at us,\u201d said Harshad, the senior most analyst at the brokerage firm. \u201cOh, why?\u201d asked Ketan. \u201cWhat did we do now? I have recommended every stock that they wanted me to recommend.\u201d \u201cI guess it must have to do with all the Sensex forecasts. There was even…","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vivekkaul.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2782"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vivekkaul.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vivekkaul.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vivekkaul.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vivekkaul.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2782"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/vivekkaul.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2782\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vivekkaul.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2782"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vivekkaul.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2782"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vivekkaul.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2782"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\n\u201cOh, why?\u201d asked Ketan. \u201cWhat did we do now? I have recommended every stock that they wanted me to recommend.\u201d
\n\u201c<\/span><\/span><\/span>I guess it must have to do with all the Sensex forecasts. There was even one report which predicted that the index will touch one lakh points by 2020,\u201d explained Rakesh.
\n\u201cYeah and we haven’t put out one,\u201d said Harshad.
\n\u201cYou know I don’t like these Indian numbers,\u201d said Samir, butting in on the video-conference from Singapore. \u201cThis <\/span><\/span><\/span>lakh-shak<\/i><\/span><\/span><\/span> is too small. Let’s talk of at least a million.\u201d
\n\u201cSamir,\u201d said Ketan. \u201cHow come you are not on TV today, driving up the market?\u201d
\n\u201cGuys, lets get serious,\u201d said a rather worried Harshad. \u201cWe need to do something.\u201d
\n\u201c<\/span><\/span><\/span>Arre <\/i><\/span><\/span><\/span>this prediction business is too risky,\u201d said Rakesh. \u201cI predicted in 2007 that the Sensex will touch 50,000 points in six-seven years.\u201d
\n\u201cSo?\u201d asked Samir.
\n\u201cWell, we are only half way there.\u201d
\n\u201cYou forgot the first law of forecasting, which it to make as many forecasts as possible and then publicise the ones you get right. How do you think I have managed to survive so long?\u201d explained Samir.
\n\u201cGuys, we are deviating from the point,\u201d said Harshad. \u201cWe need to do some damage control.\u201d
\n\u201cLike what?\u201d asked Ketan.
\n\u201cLike coming up with our own Sensex forecast,\u201d answered Harshad.
\n\u201cThen, let’s follow the second rule of forecasting,\u201d said Samir.
\n\u201cSecond rule?\u201d asked Rakesh.
\n\u201cOh. Let’s say that the Sensex will touch one million points by 2050.\u201d
\n\u201cBut what is the second rule of forecasting?\u201d asked a frustrated Harshad.
\n\u201cOh, it is to make a forecast very far into the future, so that even if we get it wrong, nobody would know that we had made the forecast in the first place,\u201d explained Samir with a chuckle.
\n\u201cActually, the Sensex needs to give a return of just 10.8% per year for it to touch one million points by 2050,\u201d said Ketan, quickly running the numbers on the excel sheet. \u201cSo this is one forecast we will most likely get right.\u201d
\n\u201c<\/span><\/span><\/span>Nah, <\/i><\/span><\/span><\/span>but 2050 is too far off,\u201d said Harshad. \u201cWhile we can say that, we will also need something which is a tad nearer.\u201d
\n\u201cHow about the Sensex touching one lakh points by 2022,\u201d said Rakesh, not having learnt from his previous mistake.
\n\u201cBut why 2022?\u201d asked Ketan. \u201cAnd not 2021 or 2023?\u201d
\n\u201cOh, in 2022, we complete 75 years of freedom,\u201d replied Rakesh.
\n\u201cSo?\u201d asked Samir.
\n\u201cMr Bachchan also turns 80 that year,\u201d said Ketan.
\n\u201cGuys, where is this heading,\u201d said Harshad. \u201cYou will get me fired. I still have EMIs to pay.\u201d
\n\u201cActually Mr Bachchan reminds me of a line from the film <\/span><\/span><\/span>Amar, Akbar, Anthony<\/i><\/span><\/span><\/span>,\u201d said Ketan.
\n\u201c<\/span><\/span><\/span>Ye kya ho raha hai<\/i><\/span><\/span><\/span>?\u201d asked Harshad, having lost control of the meeting totally.
\n\u201cSo, y<\/span><\/span><\/span>ou see, the whole country of the system is juxtaposition by the haemoglobin in the atmosphere because you are a sophisticated rhetorician intoxicated by the exuberance of your own verbosity,\u201d said Ketan.
\n\u201cMan, I never knew you could say that,\u201d said Samir, jumping from his seat. \u201cI tried <\/span><\/span><\/span>rattoing<\/i><\/span><\/span><\/span> it for almost a year and then gave up.\u201d
\n\u201cGuys, guys, but what is the point?\u201d asked a beleaguered Harshad.
\n\u201cThe point is that we need to come up with some sophisticated sounding gibberish to predict that Sensex will touch one lakh points by 2022,\u201d explained Rakesh.
\n\u201cAh you read my mind so well,\u201d complemented Ketan.
\n\u201cSo, what is the story?\u201d asked Harshad.
\n\u201cIt’s simple. The Sensex needs to give a return of 17.8 to 20.3% returns per year if it needs to touch one lakh points in 2022,\u201d explained Ketan, quickly using the excel sheet again.
\n\u201cAnd?\u201d asked Samir, totally flummoxed about where this was going.
\n\u201cIf we look at Sensex since 1979, it has given a return of a little over 17% per year on an average,\u201d said Ketan.
\n\u201cBut 17% is not enough. We need more than that,\u201d said Harshad, feeling a tad relaxed now.
\n\u201cWell, we can add a few percentage points, as the new government premium,\u201d said Ketan.
\n\u201cNew government premium?\u201d asked Samir, feeling totally left out in Singapore.
\n\u201cYou need to comeback Samir,\u201d said Rakesh. \u201cYou are not getting even the most basic stuff these days.\u201d
\n\u201cLet me explain,\u201d said Ketan. \u201cBasically we will say that the new government will set right everything that is wrong with the Indian economy. And that will mean that the Sensex will rise at 20% per year over the next eight years, instead of the usual 17%.\u201d
\n\u201cBrilliant story guys,\u201d exclaimed Samir.
\n\u201cSo, I guess we have our story,\u201d said Rakesh. \u201cLet me just go and check how my value picks are doing. I had bought some of these stocks in the late 1980s.\u201d
\n\u201cWait, wait, guys. Let me add the icing on the cake,\u201d interrupted Samir.
\n\u201cBut make it quick,\u201d said Harshad.
\n\u201cI think along with the story, we also need to launch a new M.O.D.I. fund,\u201d said Samir.
\n\u201cEh, what is that?\u201d asked Ketan, irritated by the fact that Samir was butting in to take all the credit. \u201cOh M.O.D.I. fund stands for <\/span><\/span><\/span>Multiple Opportunities in the Development of India fund<\/i><\/span><\/span><\/span>,\u201d said Samir.
\n\u201cThe name will help us raise a lot of money.\u201d
\n\u201cAh, Samir, the I love way you give it a spin,\u201d said Harshad. \u201cIts all about Modi anyway.\u201d
\nThe article originally appeared on www.FirstBiz.com <\/a>on June 16, 2014
\n(Vivek Kaul is the author of the <\/span><\/span><\/span>Easy Money<\/i><\/span><\/span><\/span> trilogy. He tweets @kaul_vivek)\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"