The Next RBI Governor Will Bat for the Country, Not Just for the Government

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Over the last two weeks, the media has speculated on who is likely to be the next governor of the Reserve Bank of India(RBI). If media reports are to be believed Arvind Panagariya, the vice-chairman of the NITI Aayog, seems to be leading the race.

Arundhati Bhattacharya, the chairperson and the managing director of the State Bank of India, is also in the race. The factor going in her favour is that she is a woman, and RBI has had no woman governor till date. The factor going against her is that the merger of the State Bank of India with its subsidiaries has been initiated, and the government is keen that she completes that. Newsreports suggest that the government is even ready to give her an extension so as to ensure that she is able to complete the merger.

Until sometime back Rakesh Mohan, a former deputy governor of the RBI, was also deemed to be in the race. But given that he recently called the Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train project useless, his chances of becoming the next RBI governor, despite being qualified for it, are rather dim.

As has been seen in the past, the Modi government is rather touchy about any sophisticated criticism. That was one of the points that went against the outgoing RBI governor Raghuram Rajan, who was seen to be as outspoken. Given this, the government is unlikely to appoint another similar individual. Former deputy governor Subir Gorkarn along with one of the current deputy governors Urjit Patel, are also said to be in the race. And given the government’s tendency to appoint bureaucrats to the RBI governor’s post, one cannot rule out any of the senior bureaucrats in the finance ministry.

Of course, the speculation will continue, until the government announces the next RBI governor, which has to happen soon, given that Rajan’s term ends in early September 2016.

One of the theories that has been put forward over coffee table conversations (at least among people who have such conversations while having coffee) is that the next RBI governor will be someone who is close to the government and in the process do what the government wants him or her to do.

This basically means that the next RBI governor will do the Modi government’s bidding and in the process cut the repo rate. Repo rate is the rate at which the RBI lends to banks. The hope is that once the RBI cuts the repo rate banks will cut their lending rates as well. In the process people will borrow and spend and economic growth will return. This is something that the finance minister Arun Jaitley, has been demanding for a while now.

While the interest rate mechanism is not so straightforward, but then that doesn’t stop people from talking and hoping. Remember, we are talking about coffee table conversations here.

In fact, a similar logic was offered when D Subbarao was made the RBI governor in 2008. Subbarao at that point of time was the finance secretary. He was also in line to be the next cabinet secretary, given his seniority. As the finance secretary he directly reported and worked with the then finance minister, P Chidambaram.

At that point of time the then government, like Jaitley is now, had been demanding lower interest rates. But the then RBI governor YV Reddy had not obliged. When Reddy’s second term came to an end in 2008, Subbarao was appointed to succeed him.

This led people to conclude that given that the government was appointing the current finance secretary as the RBI governor, he would bat for the government. In the past, finance secretaries have been appointed as RBI governors. This includes YV Reddy as well as Bimal Jalan, who was the RBI governor between 1997 and 2003, before Reddy took over.

In Subbarao’s case, it was the first case of the finance secretary directly becoming the RBI governor. In all the earlier cases, there had been breaks. Subbarao recounts this in his new book Who Moved My Interest Rate? – Leading the Reserve Bank of India Through Five Turbulent Years: “Y.V.Reddy, my predecessor, had a formidable reputation for standing his ground with the government. The commentariat said that my familiarity with, and sympathy for, the government’s point of view would help repair that strained relationship between the ministry of finance and the Reserve Bank. Others thought that my allegiance to the ministry of finance would make me more pliable and I would dilute the independence of the Reserve Bank. Some even suggested that I was being dispatched to implement the government’s agenda from within the Reserve Bank.”

People who analysed along these lines forgot that Reddy like Subbarao after him, had also been an IAS officer. Hence, using the logic, even he should have been pliable and could have been made to do things that the government wanted him to. But that did not turn out to be the case and he did what he thought was right for the country.

Subbarao in his book goes on to write: “The only bit [of all the analysis happening on his appointment] that troubled me was doubts about my credentials and the suspicion that I would compromise the autonomy of the Reserve Bank. I was aware too that the only way I could counter those doubts and suspicions, and establish my credibility, was by demonstrating my professional integrity in all that I said and did, which would inevitably take time.”

Rest assured that if Panagariya or Bhattacharya are appointed as the RBI governor, a similar sort of logic of them being close to the government, will be offered. But the thing to remember is that in the past many RBI governors have come from bureaucracy and done the right thing.

There are multiple reasons for it. One is that they have their legacy to think about. Second, the past RBI governors have set high standards and given that the new RBI governor needs to stand up to that. Look at what happened at the Election Commission, after TN Seshan cleaned it up. Booth capturing and violence (though not totally) have become a thing of the past.

Third, the RBI governor’s job is typically the last high-profile government job, an individual will take on, and hence, he need not oblige the government and keep it in good humour. (Manmohan Singh is an exception to this). Fourth, the RBI governor needs to do the right things, if he or she wants to be taken seriously by the financial markets.

Given these reasons, the next RBI governor, whoever he or she is, is likely to do the right things, than just bat for the government.

The column originally appeared in Vivek Kaul’s  Diary on Equitymaster on July 27, 2016

Banks would rather lend to govt than give you cheaper loan

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Vivek Kaul
The State Bank of India (SBI) cut its base rate by 5 basis points (i.e. 0.05%, one basis point is one hundredth of a percentage) to 9.7% in response to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cutting the repo rate by 25 basis points (i.e. 0.25%). Guess it was their idea of a ‘bad’ joke. Repo rate is the interest rate at which the RBI lends to banks.
While newspapers have gone to town trying to tell you and me that interest rates are falling nothing like that has happened. A few banks have cut their auto loan rates but no major bank(other than SBI) has cut its base rate. Base rate is the lowest rate of interest at which a bank can lend.
Why has that been the case? Numbers tell a really interesting story.
As on March 30, 2012, banks had invested 28.55% of their deposits in government bonds. This number has since gone up and as on January 11, 2013, banks had invested 30.23% of their deposits in government bonds.
This means that during the course of this financial year (i.e. the period between April 1, 2012 and March 31, 2013) the Indian banks have invested a greater proportion of the deposits they managed to raise into government bonds.
The government issues bonds to finance its fiscal deficit. Fiscal deficit is the difference between what the government earns and what it spends.
What is interesting is that banks have to maintain a statutory liquidity ratio of 23% i.e. invest Rs 23 of every Rs 100 raised as demand and time deposits compulsorily into government bonds. But as of January 11, 2013, for every Rs 100 collected as deposits, banks had Rs 30.23 invested in government securities. And this has gone up from Rs 28.55 as on March 30, 2012. This in a scenario where banks need to invest only Rs 23 out of every Rs 100 raised as deposits in government bonds.
This tells us that banks would rather lend more to the government than you and me. This excess money chasing government bonds has led to a situation where the return on government bonds has fallen. The return on a 10 year government bond as on March 30, 2012, stood at 8.54%. On January 11, 2013, it was at 7.87%.
This excess lending and lower returns on the government portfolio has meant that banks need to continue charging high interest rates on the loans they make to consumers, in order to continue maintaining their profit levels. And that explains to a large extent why they haven’t cut interest rates despite the Reserve Bank cutting the repo rate by 0.25%.
The question to ask here is why are banks happy lending to the government rather than you and me? Is it a lazy banking? Why bother lending to individual consumers when you can lend in bulk to the government? Or are banks facing more losses on their lending and hence are sticking to lending to the government? Lending to the government is deemed to be safe given that even in the worst possible scenario the government can always print and repay money. Or is it a case of the government forcing public sector banks to invest a greater amount of their deposits than is required as per the law of the land, in government bonds?
Whatever be the case this excess lending to the government has led to a situation where banks are unable to cut interest rates.
It has also helped the government, allowing it to easily raise money from banks to finance its massive fiscal deficit at lower rates of interest. The fiscal deficit targeted for this financial year (i.e. the period between April 1, 2012 and March 31, 2013) was Rs 5,13, 590 crore. For the period April to November the fiscal deficit stood at around Rs 4,13,000 crore. This means that during the first eight months of the year, the fiscal deficit crossed 80% of the budgeted estimate.
If we project the fiscal deficit number for the first eight months for the entire financial year it is likely to come to Rs 6,16,000 crore, which is Rs 1,00,000 crore more than the budgeted fiscal deficit. And if the banks continue to help the government as they have in this financial year, the government can keep running its huge fiscal deficit rather easily.
There had been great pressure on the RBI governor D Subbarao to cut the repo rate. He had resisted the idea for a while now despite repeated hints given by the government in general and the finance minister P Chidambaram in particular. Now that he has gone ahead and cut the repo rate, it is not translating into subsequent cut in interest rates by banks.
In an interview to The Economic Times former RBI governor YV Reddy explained the friction between a central bank and the government by saying “A central bank that is always in agreement with the government is superfluous, just as a central bank that is always in disagreement is obnoxious. The solution really is to have messy coordination.”
To conclude, there is not much that the RBI can do to bring down interest rates. That will only happen once the government is able to control its fiscal deficit. And that is not happening any time soon. So higher EMIs and interest rates are here to stay.

The article originally appeared on www.firstpost.com on January 31, 2013.
(Vivek Kaul is a writer. He can be reached at [email protected])