Only 3.78% of Adults Have Got Both Doses of the Vaccine

Honestly, I didn’t want to write this piece. But when a cabinet minister of the government of India uses basic maths to mislead, it didn’t leave me with much of an option.

Here’s what Dr Harsh Vardhan, who is the minister of health and family welfare and science and technology, tweeted earlier in the day today.

Regular readers would know how much I hate when people don’t know when to use percentages and when to use absolutes. Or the fact that they know and still do it, to mislead.

Harsh Vardhan’s tweet has multiple problems. Let’s look at it pointwise.

1)  The minister points out that the government of India has provided more than 18 crore vaccines free to states for vaccination. This is for vaccinating people who are 45 or more. So far so good. The thing is that India has the second largest population in the world. As per the World Bank it was at 136.64 crore in 2019, with China’s population being at 139.77 crore. With China’s population barely growing and ours continuing to grow, by now, we might be within the touching distance of China to become the country with the largest population in the world.

So, when it comes to things that need to be provided to all the population or a significant chunk of it, India is bound to be at the top. Also, vaccinating the population is not a race. It is the right thing to do.

2) Given this, it makes sense to look at what proportion of the population over the age of 18 has been fully vaccinated, meaning it has gotten both the doses of the vaccine. That’s a useful metric.

As I write this, the dashboard on the Co-Win website tells me that 3.56 crore individuals have taken both the doses. There are around 94.3 crore Indians who are aged 18 and above. This means that around 3.78% of the population (3.56 crore expressed as a percentage of 94.3 crore), for whom vaccines are available, has been vaccinated.

Yes, you read that right. Less than 4% of those age 18 or above, have got both the doses of the vaccine. Of course, this explains why Dr Harsh Vardhan’s tweet is an absolute number and not in percentage terms. This situation prevails nearly four months after the vaccination programme started.

That’s the real figure to look at simply because the aim of vaccination is to achieve herd immunity. As Ryan A Bourne defines herd immunity in Economics in One Virus as “a situation where enough people have immunity that any further outbreak of the virus fails to accelerate because there are too few individuals susceptible to infection.” Vaccinating a significant chunk of the population moves us towards the situation. And we are nowhere near that, the world’s largest vaccine drive notwithstanding.

Data from the Financial Times, tells us that there are many nations in the world who have vaccinated a significant chunk of their population. This includes smaller nations like Israel and larger ones like United States. Very few countries where covid has spread as much as it has in India, have got a rate of vaccination as low as it is in the Indian case.

3) Also, what Dr Harsh Vardhan’s tweet does not tell us is that the rate of vaccination has been slowing down majorly over the last one month. During the week April 3 to April 9, the total number of vaccinations carried out stood at around 2.48 crore doses (includes both the doses). This has fallen every week since then and stood at around 1.16 crore doses, during the week May 1 to May 7. This fall of over 53% has happened primarily because the government was busy with elections and didn’t order enough vaccines until April 28, 2021.

4) When it comes to receiving the first dose, 13.49 crore Indians or 14.3% of the population that is being vaccinated has got the vaccine. On this parameter things look a little better for India.

To conclude, vaccinating a significant chunk of India’s population to achieve herd immunity, remains a real challenge. Further, while everyone cannot be vaccinated within a short-period, but misleading the country on it by misrepresenting data is not going to help anyone in anyway.

One Basic Lesson in Investing from the Tata-Mistry Spat

Many media reports have been published around the spat that is currently on between Cyrus Mistry and the Tata Group. Mistry, till he was fired by the board, was the Chairman of the Tata Group of companies.

A report that has made it into the media over and over again, is that of the market capitalisation of the Tata Group of companies, falling by so many thousand crore, after Mistry was fired. Here are the links to a few of these reports.

Cyrus Mistry exit costs Tata Group companies Rs 26,472 cr in market-cap:  http://www.financialexpress.com/markets/indian-markets/cyrus-mistry-exit-costs-tata-group-companies-rs-26472-cr-in-market-cap/432492/

Tata group market cap falls Rs27,500 crore in three days

http://www.livemint.com/Money/orFsoUOMzsJCPTG8WOPSRJ/Tata-group-loses-Conglomerate-lose-Rs55000-crore-in-market.html

Investors in Tata stocks lose Rs 23,300cr in 2 days

Tata Group firms lose Rs 40,000 cr in market cap in three days

Group companies say Ta-Ta to Rs 26,000 crore market cap in three days

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/55103207.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

Tatas talk up stocks as sell-off hits Rs 55,000 cr

http://www.dnaindia.com/money/report-tatas-talk-up-stocks-as-sell-off-hits-rs-55000-cr-2268100

Tata Firms Lose Rs 21,000 Crore in Market Cap After Mistry Sacking (Press Trust of India)

What is common to all these newsreports? They talk in absolute terms i.e., the market capitalisation fell by so many thousand crore. They don’t talk about the fall in market capitalisation in percentage terms.

This is a huge mistake. Allow me to explain. Let’s say the market capitalisation of a stock was Rs. 100 crore. It has fallen by Rs. 20 crore and is now quoting at Rs. 80 crore. Let’s say the market capitalisation of another stock has also fallen by Rs. 20 crore is now quoting at Rs. 980 crore against the Rs. 1,000 crore earlier.

If we were to follow the formula of the Indian media, we would say that the total fall in market capitalisation of the two stocks has been Rs. 40 crore. But that means nothing, given that the fall in market capitalisation in the first case has been 20 per cent and in the second case has been 2 per cent. By adding the losses, we take this nuance out of the equation. It is important to remember that a fall in the market capitalisation of a stock is always with respect to the market capitalisation prevailing earlier.

Now let’s pay attention on one particular media report here, which said that the total fall in market capitalisation of the Tata Group of Companies between October 24, 2016 and October 27, 2016, was Rs 55,000 crore. Take a look at the following table. It lists out the the fall in market capitalisation of the Tata companies for the period under consideration.

 Name of the company Market Capitalisation (in Rs. Crore) Fall in market capitalisation As on October 24, 2016 As on October 27,2016 (in Rs. Crore) Tata Motors 1,80,114 1,48,096 32,018 Tata Consultancy Services 4,78,390 4,68,607 9,783 Tata Steel 41,393 37,610 3,783 Indian Hotels 12,836 10,882 1,954 Tata Communications 19,068 17,348 1,720 Tata Power 22,611 21,096 1,515 Tata Chemicals 14,713 13,502 1,211 Tata Global Beverages 9,710 8,814 896 Voltas 13,019 12,519 500 Tata Elxsi 4,151 3,884 267 Titan 33,487 33,270 217 Rallis India 4,592 4,379 213 Trent 6,759 6,580 179 Tata Coffee 2,517 2,364 153 Tata Metaliks 1,068 927 141 Tinplate Company of India 938 867 71 Tata Sponge Iron 982 916 66 Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) 1,466 1,417 49 TRF 313 301 12 NELCO 217 207 10 Benares Hotels 146 140 6 Tayo Rolls 60 59 1

Source: Livemint

This table was shared by a senior editor of the Mint newspaper on Twitter. (I have changed it slightly to the extent of rounding off the numbers). The text accompanying the table stated: “#TataSons meltdown Conglomerate loses Rs. 55,000 crore in market cap in 3 days as #CyrusMistry ouster snowballs.”

The market capitalisation of the Tata companies fell by Rs. 54,765 crore between October 24,2016 and October 27, 2016. This has been rounded off to Rs. 55,000 crore. While Rs. 55,000 crore sounds like a huge number, it doesn’t really mean much in this case.

If we were to look at the situation in percentage terms, then the total market capitalisation of the Tata companies fell by 6.5 per cent, over the three-day period. While, this is huge, it doesn’t sound as big as saying that the market capitalisation has fallen by Rs. 55,000 crore. This is what the media has been doing.

Further, if one were to look at the table carefully, it is easy to see that the bulk of the fall in market capitalisation is because of one company and that is Tata Motors. Of the total fall in market capitalisation of Rs. 55,000 crore, Tata Motors is responsible for a fall of close to Rs. 32,000 crore or 58.2 per cent of the total fall.

How does the situation look once we adjust for this anomaly? Suddenly the total fall in market capitalisation is down to around Rs. 23,000 crore (or Rs. 22,747crore to be precise). In percentage terms this fall is around 3.4 per cent.

Now the situation doesn’t look as bad as it did earlier. Or to put it in other terms, if Tata Motors, is taken out of the equation, the media headlines are no longer as sexy (for the lack of a better term) as they originally sounded.

The point being that one Tata group stock i.e., Tata Motors has had to bear the brunt of the spat between the Tata Group and Cyrus Mistry. In fact, between October 24, 2016 and October 27, 2016, the price of the stock fell by 17.8 per cent.

The other big fall has been in the case of Indian Hotels. The market capitalisation of the stock fell by 15.2 per cent between October 24, 2016 and October 27, 2016. If we were to leave this stock out as well, the total fall in market capitalisation of the Tata Group of companies comes down to 3.2 per cent.

The investors in these cases perhaps did not like these stocks anyway, and were looking for an excuse to sell out of them. The Tata Group and Cyrus Mistry spat, just provided them an excuse for it.

The major point here is that we all like to look at absolute numbers. But that doesn’t really mean anything unless we take percentages into account. This is because a rise or a fall is essentially meaningless without taking the previous price or market capitalisation into account.

This is a tendency to concentrate on absolute numbers is visible in real estate investing as well. People tend to fondly remember anecdotal stories about friends, relatives, neighbours and others, who bought a flat for Rs. 10 lakh and sold it for Rs. 60 lakh. They do not factor in the expenses over the years or the time value of money.

And that is one of the reasons that has kept the real estate bubble going.

The column originally appeared in Vivek Kaul’s Diary on November 1, 2016