Rajasthan’s Land Bill Unlocks Dead Capital And It Should Be Replicated In Other States

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On April 4, 2016, the Rajasthan assembly passed the Rajasthan Urban Land (Certification of Titles) Bill. This legislation will give a statutory backing to land records. In the process Rajasthan became the first Indian state to enact a law on property titles.

Indeed, this is a big move. What we have in India up until now is what urban planner Swati Ramanathan calls presumed ownership. In a recent column in Mint she explains this: “What we have in India today is a system of “presumed ownership”. The notion that a “sale deed” is proof of ownership is misplaced. The registration of property at the stamps and registration department merely acknowledges that a transaction has taken place between two parties. It does not verify or guarantee that the seller is indeed the indisputable owner, nor that the buyer is now indisputably the new owner.” This explains why so many property cases end up in court. With clear property titles, this is less likely to happen.

With the Bill being passed, the Rajasthan government will have to get around to setting up the Urban Land Title Certification Authority.

Anyone who wants a land title will have to apply to this authority. The act of applying for a title to this authority is voluntary. As the Section 23 of the Bill points out: “As soon as may be, after the receipt of application…the Certification Authority shall scrutinize the information and the documents furnished by the applicant and seek their verification from the relevant record maintained by the State Government or any other authority to satisfy himself about the veracity of the information and authenticity of such documents.

If the Land Title Certification Authority is satisfied “about the veracity of the information and authenticity of such documents” it will certify the “status of applicant as lawful holder of title of the urban land specified in the application.” This initial provisional certificate will be valid for a period of two years.

If during the period of two years no counter claim or objection is received by the Land Certification Authority, it will after the two years are over, issue a permanent certificate of title for the land. The state government shall stand as a “guarantor for the genuineness and authenticity of the title”.

This data will be maintained on the Computerized Land Evaluation and Administration of Records (CLEAR), a central system of electronic data storage. If the entire system works as it is envisaged to, then the number of property disputes are likely to come down, given that people will have a clear title to the land that they own. This will be guaranteed by the state government.

Clear titles will also lead to the unlocking of what the Peruvian economist Hernando de Soto calls dead capital.  De Soto essentially points out that in the Western countries, land and buildings are also used as capital because land titles are clear. This is not in the case in developing countries like India. He calls these assets in developing countries “dead capital”.

As he writes in The Mystery of Capital—Why Capitalism Triumphs in the West and Fails Everywhere Else: “Why can’t buildings and land elsewhere in the world also lead this parallel life?…My reply is: Dead capital exists because we have forgotten that converting a physical asset to borrow money to finance an enterprise for example – requires a very complex process.

The presence of clear land titles essentially simplifies the entire idea of being able to borrow against what Soto calls dead capital. As he writes: “Any asset whose economic and social aspects are not fixed in a formal property system is extremely hard to move in the market. How can the huge amounts of assets changing hands in a modern market economy be controlled if not through a formal property process?

The lack of a formal property process hurts. As de Soto writes: “Without such a system, any trade of an asset, say a piece of real estate, requires an enormous effort just to determine the basics of the transaction: does the seller own the real estate and have the right to transfer it? Can he pledge it? Will the new owner be accepted as such by those who enforce property rights?

In this scenario, it becomes difficult to sell land/building as well as raise capital by borrowing against it. Once the titles become clear and the government guarantees it, the problem gets solved.

Akhilesh Tilotia makes a similar point in his book The Making of India. As he writes: “Hernando de Soto…points out that many small entrepreneurs lack legal ownership of their property, making it difficult for them to (1) obtain credit to expand or (2) sell their business when either they or their businesses have run the course. The existence of such massive exclusion generates two parallel economies: legal and extra-legal. An elite minority enjoys the economic benefits of law and globalization, while a majority of the entrepreneurs are stuck in poverty, where their assets languish as dead capital.”

This can be corrected with a proper system of land titles. As Tilotia writes: “India, with its 120 million small and marginal cultivators and 8.5 million retail(mom-and-pop) outlets requires strong land title records to help these entrepreneurs to prosper and gain benefits of economic growth.

If what has started in Rajasthan spreads to other parts of the country including rural India, there are other benefits as well. The average size of agricultural land-holding has been falling over the decades. As per Agriculture Census of 2010-11: “The average size of holdings for all operational classes (small & marginal, medium and large) have declined over the years and for all classes put together it has come down to 1.16 hectare in 2010-11 from 2.82 hectare in 1970-71.”

As the same land is divided between more and more family members over the generations the average holding has fallen dramatically. Further, as per Agriculture Census 2010-11, small and marginal holdings of less than 2 hectare account for 85 per cent of the total operational holdings and 44 per cent of the total operated area. This could have only gotten worse since 2010-11.

Clear land titles can play a part here. As de Soto writes: “In a developed country, the farmer’s son who wishes to follow in his father’s footsteps can keep the farm by buying out his more commercially minded siblings. Farmers in many developing countries have no such option and must continually subdivide their farms for each generation until the parcels are too small to farm profitably.”

Clear land titles can clearly help India’s 120 million small and marginal cultivators.

To conclude, it is important that what has started in Rajasthan starts to spread in other parts of the country as well and other states get around to passing a similar law.

(Vivek Kaul is the author of the Easy Money trilogy. He can be reached at [email protected])

The column originally appeared on Swarajya Mag on April 14, 2016

What is True About Sugarcane in Maharashtra is Also True About Rice in Punjab

 

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A water-scarce state like Maharashtra should not be growing as much sugarcane as it does. Sugarcane is cultivated on less than four percent of the total cropped area in the state but uses 70% of the its irrigation water.

This is something that is happening in the production of rice in Punjab as well. Punjab, is basically a semi-arid area. The state is the third largest producer of rice. It produces 11.3% of the total rice produced in the country, with Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal producing 13.9% and 13.6% respectively.

The production of rice needs a lot of water. Given this, rice is really not something that should be grown in a semi-arid region. As the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP) in a report titled Price Policy for Kharif Crops—The Marketing Season for 2015-16 points out: “West Bengal, just as an example, consumes 2605 litres of water to produce a kilogram of rice compared to 5337 litres being guzzled by Punjab. The efficiency gap with respect to consumption of water in Punjab (the most efficient in terms of land productivity) is over 51 percent. This shows that the most efficient state in terms of land productivity is not the most efficient if other factor of production viz. water is factored into.”

What this clearly tells us is that rice farming in Punjab is a huge water-guzzler. The state government helps the farmers by ensuring that electricity is free, which essentially leads to a lot of over-pumping of ground water in the state.

As an August 2015 news-report in The Hindu Business Line points out: “According to the Central Ground Water Board, out of 137 blocks in Punjab, 110 come under the over-exploited category. Besides, the gross underpricing of electricity has encouraged the farmers to pump groundwater with minimal cost and effort.”

The CACP makes a broader point in a report titled document titled Price Policy for Sugarcane—2015-16 Sugar Season where it says: “Instead of focusing on economy in water use in agriculture, most state governments have been content with subsidising electricity for pumping irrigation water.”
Other than free electricity, there is another reason for such a huge amount of rice being produced in Punjab. The government of India announces the minimum support price(MSP) for 23 crops, every year. Nevertheless, as far as procurement is concerned, it primarily buys rice, wheat and cotton, through the Food Corporation of India(FCI) and other state procurement agencies.

The awareness of this procurement among farmers varies throughout the country. In Punjab the awareness is very high. As the Economic Survey for 2015-2016 points out: “In Punjab and Haryana, almost all paddy and wheat farmers are aware of the MSP policy.”

Over and above this, the procurement is also not uniformly carried out throughout the country. In 2013-2014, Punjab produced 11.1 million tonnes of rice. Of this, nearly 11 million tonnes was marketable surplus. The state consumed only 0.1 million tonnes of rice, given that rice is not a staple food in Punjab. The Punjabis are primarily roti eaters and roti is made from wheat.

Of this, 8.1 million tonnes was procured by the government. This is the highest among all the states in the country, both in absolute terms as well as a proportion of total production. Also, nearly one fourth of the total rice procured by the government is procured from Punjab.

Compare this to the state of West Bengal, which produced 15 million tonnes of rice in 2013-2014, with a marketable surplus of 9.5 million tonnes (given that Bengalis are primarily rice-eaters). Of this only 1.7 million tonnes was procured.

As the CACP points out: “For instance, there was almost negligible procurement of rice in Assam during 2013-14, even though it contributed 4.6 percent of the total rice production. The situation in other eastern states such as Bihar, West Bengal is somewhat better than that of Assam but not good enough when these states are compared with Punjab.

This is a point that is made in the Economic Survey as well: “Even for paddy and wheat where active procurement occurs, there is a substantial variation across states – with only half or less paddy and wheat farmers reporting awareness of MSP, especially in states such as, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh and Jharkhand.”

The awareness of MSP for rice essentially ensures that the farmers of Punjab are actually producing more rice than they should, given that they have a ready customer in the government. The free electricity is of course another reason. This has also led to a situation wherein the country is producing more rice than what it needs for consumption and is not producing enough other agricultural products like pulses.

In fact, any export of an agricultural product essentially implies export of water. As CACP points out: “When our country exports about 100 lakh tonnes [10 million tonnes] of rice annually, it implies that over 38 billion cubic meter of virtual water is exported.” In a country as water deficient as India is, this is not a good thing.

Much of this rice is produced by pumping ground water and this has had a huge impact in the state of Punjab. As CACP points out: “Given that this water is extracted by mining groundwater, as is being done in much of the Punjab and Haryana belt (particularly in case of rice), where water table is receding by 33 cm each year, thereby shrinking its per-capita availability, high import duty of 70 to 80 percent is perverse and conveys wrong signals on use of water (and also power).”

Cheap electricity and an ineffective procurement policy have essentially led to a situation where India’s water problem will only get worse in the days to come. As the Economic Survey points out: “India has much lower levels of water per capita than Brazil, one of the world’s leading agricultural countries. This constraint is exacerbated because, while Brazil and China use approximately 60 per cent of their renewable fresh water resources for agriculture, India uses a little over 90 per cent.”

The column originally appeared on Vivek Kaul’s Diary on April 14, 2016

Not Holding IPL in Maharashtra Will Meet Water Needs of Latur for 42 Minutes

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In yesterday’s column I had explained why holding the Indian Premier League(IPL) T20 cricket tournament, responsible, for the water woes of Maharashtra, is wrong.

The trouble is that no one is using numbers to make an argument. Emotions are running high—and the typical argument against IPL is when there is no water in Latur, how can we waste water on cricket grounds.

But this argument looks at the issue only in absolute terms. It is estimated that the IPL will use around 6 million litres of water. This sounds a lot on its own. But it amounts to only an insignificant amount of the total water used to produce sugarcane in Maharashtra in 2013-2014.

The basic problem is that Maharashtra should not be growing as much sugarcane as it is. Sugarcane is cultivated on less than four percent of the total cropped area in the state but uses 70% of its irrigation water.

Hence, all the noise around IPL being moved out of Maharashtra is essentially nonsense of the worst kind. People who feel for those who do not have water in parts of Maharashtra can do more for them by stopping to waste water in their daily lives, than agitating about this. Also, they should check for water leakages in their building.

Let’s take a look at Latur in a little more detail. An India Today report points out that the daily requirement of water in Latur is 85 litres per person. As per the 2011 census, the population of the Latur district is around 24.6 lakh (2.46 million).

This means the district needs around 209.1 million litres of water every day (85 litres multiplied by 2.46 million). IPL is scheduled between April 9 and May 29, and will use six million litres of water over a period of 51 days in Maharashtra.

During the same period Latur would require 10,664 million litres of water (209.1 million litres multiplied by 51 days). How will not using six million litres of water at IPL help? If I stretch my argument, not allowing IPL in Maharashtra to happen, will essentially save water that is good enough to meet the water needs of Latur for 0.029 days (6 million litres expressed as a proportion of 209.1 million). This essentially means around 42 minutes (0.029 x 24 x 60), if I were to convert it into minutes.

So not allowing IPL in Maharashtra to happen will supply water to the people of Latur for all of 42 minutes. Of course, I am assuming that all the water that is thus saved can be moved to Latur, all at once, and no part of it is evaporated during the process.

The larger point is that there are better things that can be done to save water.

Further, why is no one talking about the huge amount of water that gets wasted everyday due to leakage as well as theft. A March 2016 report in The Times of India offers some data points. The report points out that Mumbai loses 900 million litres of water daily due to leakage and theft.

An August 2015 report in the same newspaper had put the daily leakage of water in Mumbai at 1,012.5 million litres. The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation(BMC) terms this leakage as “non-revenue” water, in a classic bureaucratic way.

In this column, I will work with the former estimate of 900 million litres daily leakage, given that it is a more recent one.

I tried looking for the water leakage numbers for Pune and Nagpur where IPL matches are scheduled along with Mumbai, in the state of Maharashtra, but I couldn’t find any numbers. Given that I will have to work with only the Mumbai water leakage number.

The IPL started on April 9 and is supposed to go on till May 29. Effectively, it is a tournament that will go on for 51 days. Over 51 days, 45,900 million litres of water (900 million multiplied by 51) would have been lost just in Mumbai. The total number would be higher if we had the leakage numbers for Pune and Nagpur as well. In comparison, the IPL will use only six million litres of water, over 51 days. This works out to 0.013% of the total leakage of water in Mumbai.

If only a part of the leakage could be plugged, the water needs of Latur could be easily met. Why is no one really talking about this?

I know I am exaggerating here with my calculations but this is just to show the absurdity of the issue of moving IPL out of Maharashtra in order to save water. The question that crops up here is that why are the NGOs which have filed a PIL in the Bombay High Court asking for IPL to be moved out of Maharashtra, not taking BMC to task as well?

The ultimate idea should be to stop the wastage of water and considerably huge amount of water is being wasted by leakage and municipal corporations not doing much about it. Why is this discussion not happening?

The BCCI, for once, does not appear to be in a confrontational state. An India Today TV report points out that BCCI is planning to move five matches out of Maharashtra. Of this two matches were scheduled in Pune and three matches in Nagpur.

The three matches that were scheduled to happen in Nagpur are now likely to take place in Mohali in Punjab. Like Maharashtra grows sugarcane, a fairly water-intensive crop, Punjab grows rice. Punjab is a semi-arid region and in an ideal world, rice shouldn’t be grown there, because it needs a lot of water, and there is not a lot of water going around in a semi-arid region.

Like Maharashtra shouldn’t be growing sugarcane, Punjab shouldn’t be growing rice. Punjab uses 5,337 litres of water to grow one kilogram of rice. This is more than double that of West Bengal, which takes 2,605 litres of water to grow one kilogram of rice.

In total Punjab produced 11.1 million tonnes of rice in 2013-2014. So how many litres of water did it use in total? The total amount of water used was 59,240,700 million litres (11.1 million tonnes of rice multiplied by 5,337 litres of water per kg of rice).

Currently, four matches are scheduled at Mohali. The India Today TV report suggests that three matches from Nagpur will be moved to Mohali. This basically means that seven matches will be played in Mohali.

In the public interest litigation that has been filed in the Bombay High Court asking that IPL cricket matches should be moved out of Maharashtra, it has been said for each match three lakh litres of water are needed. As Ankita Verma, the lawyer for the petitioners told Rediff.com: “International maintenance for pitch guidelines state that for each match you need three lakh litres [0.3 million] of water for one ground.”

Hence, for seven matches in Mohali, a total of 2.1 million litres of water (0.3 million litres per match multiplied by seven matches) would be needed. This forms around 0.0000035% of water used in Punjab for growing rice.

This is as insignificant as the water to be used for IPL matches in Maharashtra in comparison to the total water used for growing sugarcane. If to save such a small proportion of water, cricket matches can be moved out of Maharashtra, they should be moved out of Punjab as well. The logic is exactly the same.

I know the argument is absurd. But it needs to be made in order to show that the real issues behind the water problem in the country are not being talked about. No one is talking about sugarcane and rice paddy not being the right agricultural crops to be grown in Punjab and Maharashtra. The reason is straightforward, there are political parties which benefit from this.

Further, no one is talking about the astonishing amount of water leakage that happens on a daily basis. While, changing cropping patters is a long term solution, preventing water leakage on a war-footing is a simpler solution, and can be carried out, if the local municipalities get their way around to doing it. The only people who will lose due to this, is the water mafia.

But then this is not as sexy as criticising IPL. I am no fan of BCCI, but IPL is a soft target.

The column originally appeared in the Vivek Kaul Diary on Equitymaster on April 13, 2016

What Happens When Bill Gates Walks Into a Bar

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The mathematician John Allen Paulos in his book Beyond Numeracy writes: “The fourth-grader notes that half the adults in the world are men and half are women and concludes therefrom that the average adult has one breast and one testicle.”

This is a rather extreme example of how the concept of mean or average is misused. An average of X numbers is obtained by adding those numbers and dividing it by X.

Here is another example of a situation where the concept of average is misused.  As Charles Wheelan writes in Naked Statistics—Stripping the Dread from the Data: “Imagine that ten guys are sitting on bar stools in a middle-class drinking establishment…each of these guys earns $35,000 a year, which makes the mean annual income for the group $35,000.”

The software billionaire, Bill Gates, walks into this bar. As Wheelan writes: “Let’s assume for the sake of the example that Bill Gates has an annual income of $1 billion. When Bill sits down on the eleventh bar stool, the mean annual income for the bar patrons rises to about $91 million. Obviously none of the original ten drinkers is any richer. If I were to describe the patrons of this bar as having an average annual income of $91 million, the statement would be both statistically correct and grossly misleading.”

The point being that the average or the mean of a given set of numbers can be very misleading. One thing that clearly comes out of this example is that the majority of the numbers that constitute an average can be lower than the average.

As was clear in this example, ten out of 11 men in the bar had a lower income than the average income of $91 million. Here is another interesting example. As Robert Matthews writes in Chancing It—The Laws of Chance and How They Can Work for You: “The world’s men provide an excellent example – in the shape of their penises. Or, to be more precise, size: according research, the average length is 13.24 centimetres, but the median value is 13.00 centimetres.”

And what is median value? As Paulos writes: “The median of a set of numbers is the middle number in the set.” Let’s go back to the bar example for a moment. Let’s say the eleven individuals in the bar are made to sit in the ascending order of their income. The individual setting on the sixth stool will represent the median income of the group.

Now let’s get back to the penis example. The average length of a man’s penis is 13.24 centimetres. But the median value is 13 centimetres. What does this mean? As Matthews writes: “First, it shows that the global distribution of penis sizes is skewed towards smaller values, and second that most men really do have below-average-sized penises.”

This becomes very important when we are discussing issues like per capita income of a country or the average income earned by a citizen of a country.
The economic health of a nation is also judged by the rise in its per capita income. But should that always be the case? Take the Indian case. A survey carried out by Gallup in December 2013, put India’s median income at $616. Data from the World Bank shows that India’s per capita income during the same year was $1455.

Hence, the median income was around 58% lower than the average income or the per capita income. And that is not a good sign at all. The difference is obviously because the rich (Bill Gates in the example) make substantially more than the poor and drive up the average income. Data from World Bank shows that the top 10% of India’s population makes 30% of the total income.

The point being that economic growth as measured by growth in per capita income is not always the correct way of going about things. Is this growth really trickling down? And that can only become clear if the median income is going up. The tragedy is that no regular data is available on this front.

(Vivek Kaul is the author of the Easy Money trilogy. He can be reached at [email protected])

The column originally appeared in the Bangalore Mirror on April 13, 2016

How Rahul Kanwal of India Today TV copied my column on IPL v/s sugarcane debate and still got it wrong

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On April 12, 2016, India Today TV broadcast a discussion titled IPL vs drought: No one is really targeting the real villain at 10 pm.

In this sixteen-minute-long discussion, the anchor Rahul Kanwal copied chunks of my column titled “IPL Will Use ZERO Percent of the Water That Sugarcane Does”. This was published on Equitymaster.com and SwarajyaMag.com.

(You can watch the programme here: http://indiatoday.intoday.in/video/ipl-vs-drought-no-one-targetting-the-real-villain/1/641398.html

You can read my column here: https://www.equitymaster.com/diary/detail.asp?date=04/12/2016&story=2&title=IPL-Will-Use-ZERO-Percent-of-the-Water-That-Sugarcane-Does&utm_source=homepage&utm_medium=website&utm_campaign=newsletters&utm_content=vkd)

Kanwal says at the very beginning to one of the invitees on the show to look at the data that we have compiled very carefully. By we he means India Today TV obviously. The claim is of being original. But is he? The data that he claims to have compiled has been lifted as it is from my column. While all the data is publicly available, the calculations are not.

Also, the data I use has been taken from the documents of CACP, a division of ministry of agriculture. You cannot really Google these documents unless you know their specific names.

At 1.43 minutes Kanwal says that the water used for twenty IPL matches would equal 0.0000038% of the water used for growing sugarcane in Maharashtra. This data point is a part of my column. I have calculated it using CACP data. It is not publicly available. The fact that no effort has been made to round it off tells me even more strongly that the number has been copied from my column.

At 2.23 minutes he says total amount of water needed to produce sugarcane is 158 million litres. This is incorrect. The total amount of water needed is 158,306,400 million litres or 158 million million litres. There are two millions, Kanwal uses only one. Also, this calculation is not publicly available anywhere. I have calculated it in my column. Kanwal has tried to use it and ended up using it wrongly.

Further, if Maharashtra needs 158 million litres of water to cultivate sugarcane, and needs six million litres for IPL, then the number 0.0000038% is wrong. The right proportion would be 3.8% (6 million litres divided by 158 million litres). Going by these numbers, Kanwal should have said that the water to be used for IPL will only amount to 3.8% of the water used for cultivating sugarcane.

But the number he uses is 0.0000038%. This mistake is made because Kanwal has dropped a million. And this is where his copying becomes even more obvious. If he had actually calculated using the numbers he talks about, the result would have been different.

Then he talks about the sugar barons of Maharashtra and names them. I just make a general point in my column and do not name the politicians like Kanwal did.

At 5.05 minutes Kanwal suddenly says 3 million litres of water will be used for IPL and 154 million litres of water are used for sugarcane production. He goes wrong again with the data points. The numbers are six million litres of water for cricket and 158 million million litres of water for sugarcane.

He keeps repeating 154 million litres through the programme and three million litres of water for IPL. Also, if 3 million litres of water were required for cricket and 154 million litres of water were required for sugarcane production, then IPL water as a proportion of water used for sugarcane production would be 1.95% and not 0.0000038% as Kanwal says at the beginning. Guess this is what happens when you copy without understanding how the numbers have been arrived at.

At 13.24 minutes Kanwal suddenly says that the amount of water required to conduct IPL is only 2% of the amount of water required by the sugarcane industry. I don’t know where he came up with this number.

In the end he goes back to 0.0000038%.

I would request you to read my column and then watch Kanwal’s show and draw your own conclusion. I am of the opinion he copied my column and did not give me credit for it. If I were to go by what the good old Anu Mallik used to say in his heydays, Kanwal was inspired by my column.

PS: Kanwal also put out the following tweet.

INDIA’S SUGAR PRODUCTION = 28 MILLION TONS SUGAR DEMAN = 24.3 MILLION TONS TOTAL EXPORT = 3.7 MILLION TONS We’re virtually exporting water

I say in my column that demand is 24.3 million tonnes of sugar and our production 28 million tonnes. I do write that when we export sugar we are basically exporting water by quoting Business Standard editor TN Ninan’s book The Turn of the Tortoise. Too many things here that don’t meet the basic smell test.